Seeking Value, Avoiding Bull Traps

Crescat Capital Research Letter & Performance Update

In Crescat’s analysis, it is still way too risky to buy the dip in mega-cap tech stocks. Valuations are still higher than the PEAK of the dotcom bubble as we show in the two charts below. There is substantial downside ahead based on the comparison to the early 2000’s tech bust at its washout point. Our first chart shows the …

Sell Big Tech, Buy Explorers, Hedge with Yuan Puts

Crescat Capital Research Letter & Performance Update

The Crescat Global Macro Fund was up 2.9% net in August and 38.8% net year to date. Mega Cap Growth shorts were the best performing theme overall generating a 2.3% absolute return to the fund while the S&P 500 was down 4.1%. The Long/Short and Precious Metals Funds were also up in August. All Crescat strategies have outperformed their benchmarks …

September Performance Estimates

Crescat Capital Crescat Updates, Performance Update

The Psychology of Inflation Today’s macro environment is indeed very different than any other period we have experienced in the last four decades. Inflation is infiltrating the mindset of US households in a way not seen since the wage-price spirals of the 1970s. Prices for the goods and services that individuals require to meet basic needs have been increasing at …