Bear Market Looms – Q4 2019 Letter

The bear case for US stocks has never been stronger. The set-up looks like January of 2018 when we were similarly bearish yet the market kept screaming higher. … Read the letter»

2 of World’s Top Funds in 2018 per Bloomberg

“As the dust settles on a troubled year for hedge funds, some managers escaped the wreckage and even thrived.” Read More»

Crescat Launches New Precious Metals SMA Strategy

Gold and silver stocks are insanely cheap while growth prospects have never been better. This Crescat strategy was up 60.9% net in 2019. See Details Here>>


Crescat is a global macro asset management firm. Our mission is to grow and protect wealth over the long term. We deploy tactical investment themes based on proprietary value-driven equity and macro models. Our goal is industry leading absolute and risk-adjusted returns over complete business cycles with low correlation to common benchmarks. We apply our investment process across a mix of asset classes and strategies to assist with each client’s unique needs and objectives:

Crescat Global Macro: Our flagship hedge fund invests long and short around the world to take advantage of opportunities in any asset class. The strategy exploits both cyclical and secular macro themes throughout global equity, commodity, currency, and fixed income markets.

Crescat Long/Short: The cure for the common index fund. Guided by our time-tested, fundamental stock-scoring model and macro themes, our equity-only hedge fund is all about delivering alpha from long and short stock picking combined with intrepid navigation of the business cycle. This fund can be tactically net short in highly over-valued markets ahead of probable economic downturns.

Crescat Large Cap: An actively managed portfolio of global large cap equities. Crescat’s longest running strategy has outperformed the S&P 500 over the long term through multiple business cycles. It is a long-only, separately managed account (SMA) strategy. In extreme times, this strategy can hold up to 50% cash and precious metals to protect against expected macro downturns.

Crescat Precious Metals: A core macro asset class for a variety of economic conditions. Offers strong appreciation potential during both inflationary and recessionary environments. We navigate the precious metals cycle through this long-only SMA strategy focused on a well-researched portfolio of global all-cap gold and silver mining equities. Precious metals securities offer healthy long-term total return prospects with low correlation to more highly trafficked asset classes.

We invite you to peruse our website for more information about our investment process, performance, investment outlook, and how to become a client.

Important Disclosures

Record complacency.

Consumer confidence in households w/ lower education is at its highest in 42 years.

It only reached similar levels at the height of the tech bubble, in March 2000.

An incredibly reliable contrarian indicator.
Not to disparage anyone.

Rolling over.

Consumer Confidence to Misery Index ratio is now falling after reaching ATHs in July 2019.

That was when the Fed panicked & 73% of the yield curve inverted.

Key point about this ratio:

Declines after cyclical peaks led to every recession since 1967.

Load More...