November 26, 2023
A Profusion of Recession Indicators Despite the growing popularity of the soft-landing narrative, the current scenario presents a multitude of macro factors forewarning a major recession. The dangerous…
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Something More Has to Give
October 30, 2023
Investors in US Treasury bonds have experienced extraordinary losses in the post-Covid stimulus era as evidenced by the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (Ticker: TLT) which…
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September Performance and Positioning Update
October 9, 2023
Crescat’s three hedge funds delivered strong performance in September in a down month for broad equity and fixed-income markets. All five short themes in the Global Macro…
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Redefining 60/40 Portfolios
September 16, 2023
We believe conventional investment strategies are poised to undergo a significant restructuring, placing a prominent emphasis on investments in hard assets. As illustrated in the accompanying chart,…
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A Clarion Call to Macro and Value Investors
September 15, 2023
I am writing this personal letter to Crescat’s clients and followers ahead of our regular monthly research letter to literally pound the table on what I believe…
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Violent Repricing
August 23, 2023
There is a high probability of a recession in the next twelve months according to the NY Fed’s statistically significant yield-curve inversion model. One wouldn’t know it…
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Monetary vs. Fiscal Dissonance
July 21, 2023
Monetary and fiscal authorities are currently running what we believe are unsustainably divergent policies. The simultaneous rise in the cost of debt by central banks and their…
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Three Overriding Macro Themes
June 24, 2023
Dear Investors: At Crescat, we have three overriding, high-conviction macro themes supported by our independent research and proprietary models that we believe are poised to unfold in rapid…
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Gold: A Far Superior Alternative
May 26, 2023
The US debt ceiling issues likely present a much greater risk to financial markets than currently perceived by investors. Although prior concerns related to this matter have…
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Whistling Past the Graveyard
April 26, 2023
US policymakers continue to act as if they have the stability of the financial system, the economy, and consumer prices under control. Instead, their ongoing deficit spending…
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Loosely Tight Conditions
February 24, 2023
The last 12 months have marked one of the steepest Fed rate-hiking cycles in history. Meanwhile, financial conditions remain too loose for secular inflationary forces but too…
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Mispriced Inflation
January 22, 2023
In our view, inflation is the most mispriced macro variable in markets today. CPI growth is 5.1% higher over the last two years, but five-year forward inflation…
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Mining Industry Renaissance
December 16, 2022
We believe we are at a key inflection point for the precious metals industry today. The overwhelming social pressure to adopt the green revolution, renewable energy technologies,…
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Recession Looms
November 20, 2022
Recession Highly Probable The percentage of inversions in the US Treasury yield curve just breached the critical 70% level last week. As Tavi Costa’s research at Crescat shows,…
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The Golden Era of Macro Investing
October 19, 2022
The wheels are coming off the global economy. The painful increase in cost of debt in combination with the relentless appreciation of the US dollar and tightening…
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Seeking Value, Avoiding Bull Traps
September 28, 2022
In Crescat’s analysis, it is still way too risky to buy the dip in mega-cap tech stocks. Valuations are still higher than the PEAK of the dotcom…
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Sell Big Tech, Buy Explorers, Hedge with Yuan Puts
September 17, 2022
The Crescat Global Macro Fund was up 2.9% net in August and 38.8% net year to date. Mega Cap Growth shorts were the best performing theme overall…
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A Vicious Stagflationary Environment
August 25, 2022
Today’s restrictive Fed policies in a rapidly deteriorating economy are the preconditions for a steep recession. Contrary to the unprecedented monetary and fiscal support we had following…
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Liftoff
July 30, 2022
Crescat just finished a strong turnaround month. We are so excited about what we have going on in our portfolios that we wanted to deliver this important…
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Back Up the Truck
July 23, 2022
The recent pullback in commodities is a gift. It is allowing Crescat and our investors to secure even more of the world’s future critical resources at ultra-cheap…
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The Rise and Fall of the Consumer
June 28, 2022
After experiencing the largest government-financed consumption boost in history, household demand for goods and services is poised to fall off a cliff. The US economy simply cannot…
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May Performance Estimates
June 5, 2022
Crescat’s May performance was negatively impacted by to the downturn in the precious metals markets. The pullback was caused by declining medium and long-term inflation expectations during…
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May Research Letter – Too Soon
May 29, 2022
Too Soon to Buy the Dip, Unless It’s Commodities The valuation of the Wilshire 5000 US Total Stock Market Index reached a historic high of 207% of GDP…
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April Performance Estimates
May 1, 2022
The Crescat Global Macro Fund delivered a great month in April, up 10.2%, during a broad selloff in the US equity market with the S&P 500 and…
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A Plethora of New Macro Trends
April 23, 2022
We are currently experiencing profound changes in the global economy that are likely to unleash a plethora of early-stage secular trends in a new inflationary regime. These…
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Crescat Thrives in Market Turmoil
March 19, 2022
We are excited to report that Crescat has delivered strong absolute and relative performance across the firm year to date as financial markets have been in turmoil….
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February RESEARCH LETTER – A Trifecta of Macro Imbalances
February 15, 2022
For the first time in history, the US is experiencing a confluence of three macro extremes all at once: High government debt to GDP like the post-war…
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December Performance Estimates
January 4, 2022
The Year of the Great Rotation Welcome to 2022. More than ever, we believe it is time to get out with the old and in with the new. At…
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DECEMBER RESEARCH LETTER – Pipe dreams and ponzi schemes
December 27, 2021
Pipe Dreams and Ponzi Schemes Normally, as part of the creative destruction process in economic downturns, the financial system gets purged of excesses. In the subsequent recovery, the…
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December Research Letter and Performance Update – Software is the Tell
December 13, 2021
Equity Market Warning The recent weakness in the broad US equity market is being masked by the outperformance of mega-market cap companies that remain near record valuations. With…
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November Research Letter – The Catalyst for The Great Rotation
November 13, 2021
The Catalyst for The Great Rotation Based on the firm’s current equity and macro models, and our investment team’s analysis, we believe we are in the explosive first…
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The Macro Case for Precious Metals
October 26, 2021
Where are we in the precious metals cycle? There is no shortage of questions on why gold has significantly underperformed during such an ideal macro setting. Let’s start by…
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OCTOBER RESEARCH LETTER – A MACRO REGIME CHANGE
October 24, 2021
We are experiencing a macro regime change that is an abrupt reversal of a four-decade trend of disinflation in the most financially repressive moment in history. With…
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September Performance Estimates
October 10, 2021
The Psychology of Inflation Today’s macro environment is indeed very different than any other period we have experienced in the last four decades. Inflation…
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September RESEARCH LETTER-Three Themes Coalescing
September 21, 2021
September 21, 2021 Dear Investors: Three Themes Coalescing With unsustainable imbalances in the global economy and financial markets today, we see unprecedented opportunities to grow and protect capital…
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August RESEARCH LETTER – The Tech Bubble Then and Now
August 30, 2021
August 30, 2021 Dear Investors: The Tech Bubble Then and Now In our analysis, the US stock market today is historically overextended and poses substantial risks….
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Quinton Hennigh Joins Crescat Full-Time
August 11, 2021
World-Renowned Gold Exploration Geologist, Quinton Hennigh, PhD, to Join Global Investment Manager, Crescat Capital Crescat Capital LLC, a Denver-based global investment manager, is pleased…
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July Performance Estimates
August 7, 2021
We are excited to report that Crescat’s newest hedge fund, the Crescat Precious Metals Fund just finished its first full year with exceptionally strong results….
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July Research Letter-Not Your Mother’s Inflation
July 27, 2021
Investors are always looking to history for guidance by attempting to find the most economically comparable period to the present. Two timeframes are the most…
Read More »»June Performance Estimates
July 11, 2021
US Stock Market at Risk of P/E Deflation The US stock market is 51% overvalued and at risk of a 34% decline. The catalyst…
Read More »»June Research Letter-A Tale of Two Destructive Outcomes
June 26, 2021
A Tale of Two Destructive Outcomes The greatest long-term investments are those capable of performing well under opposing inflationary and deflationary economic forces. Today’s…
Read More »»May Performance Estimates
June 5, 2021
We are pleased to report that Crescat had a strong May across all strategies. Performance was driven by our global fiat debasement macro theme which is the largest exposure across all Crescat strategies today. We express this theme through our activist precious metals’ positions...
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May Research Letter-The 3 Pillars of Inflation
May 19, 2021
We strongly believe investors will want to get positioned now for the Great Rotation which is being catalyzed by the three macro drivers of inflation all firing in sync today: Demand Pull, Cost Push, and Monetary Debasement. Let us explain why we think inflation is real and what investors should be doing about it....
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Crescat April Investor Letter
April 30, 2021
"Miner" Setback - It is time to evaluate your level of exposure to precious metals. We believe the macro cycle for gold and silver has turned. This could be the last chance to build a position at depressed prices. The economy is likely headed into an inflationary period and it is time to act....
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March Research Letter
March 30, 2021
A Collision of Macro Narratives - Two diverging schools of macro thoughts are prevalent today. One calls for a “Roaring 20s” redux while the other believes in a forthcoming liquidity crisis. Both narratives have valid points and flaws. To be clear, we find ourselves right in between the two. Let us elaborate......
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February Research Letter
February 25, 2021
The Fed is Trapped - The year is just getting started and the US fiscal deficit already reached another record, now at its worst level in 70 years. The Fed is facing its worst predicament yet. The current fiscal spending path will lead to record Treasury issuance this year. Foreign investors are unlikely to be the ones funding this operation....
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Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q4 2020
January 28, 2021
Crescat finished strong in 2020 to capture the top three spots in the Bloomberg News US hedge fund performance table for December. All three Crescat funds made it into Bloomberg’s top 10 for the full year with the Crescat Precious Metals Fund taking the #1 spot....
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Crescat December Performance Update
January 9, 2021
It is time to gird for full Modern Monetary Theory. With the democratic sweep in place, we are about to experience even more of the double-barreled fiscal and monetary stimulus that we saw in 2020. Overwhelmingly today, such policies have served to incite animal spirits toward financial assets. Investors are already positioned, all in, on both stocks and bonds in the US creating a highly imbalanced market....
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Exploration companies to outperform in 2021 as inflation supercharges gold and silver
December 24, 2020
Tavi Costa explains how he would invest $10,000 in the junior mining sector and what his top three favorite junior minining companies are. ...
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December Research Letter
December 23, 2020
The End Game - Markets are cyclical. Today, stocks trade at record high valuations while commodities are historically undervalued in relation. The setup is in place for a macro pivot in the relative performance of these two asset classes....
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CRESCAT NOVEMBER PERFORMANCE UPDATE
December 11, 2020
A Golden Opportunity - From a timing perspective, the setup for selling overvalued US equities and buying undervalued precious metals today looks exceptional. The gold to S&P 500 ratio just posted its worst monthly decline in 37 years. In our analysis, this relative performance was an end of cycle move for the S&P 500 but only an early inning correction for precious metals....
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As Good As It Gets
November 25, 2020
Crescat Global Macro and Crescat Long/Short hedge funds are having a pullback month to date. We wanted to bring this to your attention because we think it presents an excellent buying opportunity for those considering adding money to Crescat for the end of this month. The opportunity is being caused by the recent run-up in equity markets. We show below a set of timing indicators that are as good as they get against the long stock crowd. We strongly believe that the fundamental, macro, and now technical reasons, never looked so appealing to capitalize on short positions in a select basket of highly overpriced securities that Crescat has identified via its fundamental equity model. ...
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Crescat November Research Letter
November 22, 2020
The structure of the global economy today is built on the incessant yet tenuous reliance on monetary and fiscal stimulus. To put it bluntly, policy makers are in a pickle. In accommodating struggling enterprises at large by piling new debt onto them, they have traded off future organic growth for economic zombification. At the same time, their persistent monetary easing to prolong the expansion of the business cycle has led to historic imbalances in valuations that pose serious destabilizing risks. But leverage and multiples cannot grow to the sky forever. The days of risk parity strategies where investors pile into levered long bond portfolios alongside broad equity portfolios are numbered....
Read More »»Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q3 2020
October 27, 2020
History does not exactly repeat, but it often rhymes. The art and science of macro investing is comparing past business cycles with the present across a mosaic of different indicators and time frames to determine the most probable path forward for markets....
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The Reckoning Is Upon Us
September 24, 2020
Decades of fiscal profligacy are culminating in an explosion of government debt that is poised to bring simmering monetary debasement to a boiling point....
Read More »»Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q2 2020
August 28, 2020
Central banks are facing a serious predicament. After decades of ongoing accommodative monetary policy, the world is now sitting at record levels of debt relative to global GDP. In our view, there has never been a bigger gulf between underlying economic fundamentals and security prices......
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EARLY STAGES OF MAJOR BULL MARKET FOR PRECIOUS METALS
June 26, 2020
"I think that now with the macro and fundamentals aligning with technicals on the long-term side, I’ve never seen such a good setup for an industry like precious metals...”...
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THE US STOCK MARKET IS IN LA LA LAND
June 20, 2020
Those betting against this “absurdly overvalued” stock market are about to get paid says MarketWatch, if Crescat is right....
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Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q1 2020
April 14, 2020
Equity bulls are coming into Q1 earnings reporting season amped up on Fed liquidity after a record $2.3 trillion of monetary stimulus announced last week. The problem is that the US economy just entered a massive asset bubble bursting recession....
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The Tide is Going Out
March 8, 2020
The most overvalued stock market in US history finally climaxed in February. The popular delusion of this mania was that low interest rates and Fed liquidity would keep driving stock prices higher indefinitely....
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Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q4 2019
January 29, 2020
The bear case for US stocks has never been stronger. The set-up looks like January of 2018 when we were similarly bearish yet the market kept screaming higher. Our views were strongly vindicated in February and over the course of that year....
Read More »»Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q3 2019
October 17, 2019
A breadth of deteriorating indicators is signaling an inflection point for the US stock market and economy. The percentage of inversions in the US yield curve surged to over 70% last month....
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Necessary, Normal, and Inevitable
September 10, 2019
Recessions become self-fulfilling prophesies late in an economic expansion at a point when people finally start believing and acting like one is imminent. It is particularly true when asset bubbles are present. A huge spike in concerns about the economy as measured by Google Trends analysis of the search word “recession” was not a contrary indicator at all at the very beginning of 2008....
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Crescat’s Macro Trade Heating Up
August 5, 2019
Crescat’s “macro trade of the century” has just heated up significantly in August. In just the first two and a half trading days of the month, the Crescat Global Macro fund is up an estimated net 15.6% net MTD while the S&P 500 is down approximately 4.9%. All three legs of our macro trade have been working remarkably well:...
Read More »»Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q2 2019
July 23, 2019
We believe there is an opportunity to capitalize on a material downturn in the business cycle based on the composite of timing and imbalance indicators in Crescat’s 16-factor macro model....
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On The Precipice
June 20, 2019
Read This Letter in PDF Form Dear Investors: The US stock market is retesting its all-time highs at record valuations yet again. We strongly believe it is poised…
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An Abundance of Macro Timing Signals
May 14, 2019
Read This Letter in PDF Form At Crescat, we remain steadfast in our net short US and global equities position in our hedge funds. We are driven…
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Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q1 2019
April 18, 2019
The year-to-date rally in global risk assets after the Fed flip appears to us to be a last gasp of speculative mania for the current economic cycle....
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Macro Trade of The Century
March 15, 2019
Dear Investors: At Crescat we remain positioned to capitalize on a downturn in the economic cycle. Global equity markets peaked in January 2018 while US markets peaked in…
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Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q3 2018
November 16, 2018
Crescat’s hedge funds capitalized on the turmoil in October and climbed to the top of the US hedge fund performance tables for the month and year....
Read More »»Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q2 2018
September 15, 2018
Our three best macro ideas today are complementary plays on the unwinding of…
Read More »»Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q3 2017
November 18, 2017
US large cap stocks are the most overvalued in history, higher than prior…
Read More »»Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q2 2017
August 4, 2017
History has proven that credit bubbles always burst. China by far is the…
Read More »»Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q4 2016
January 10, 2017
Crescat’s hedge funds ended 2016 on a positive note after the Trump presidential…
Read More »»Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q2 2016
June 30, 2016
The markets have been turbulent in the wake of the unexpected Brexit vote….
Read More »»Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q1 2016
March 16, 2016
We are pleased to announce that Crescat Global Macro Fund was recently named…
Read More »»Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q4 2015
December 17, 2015
With pockets of weakness being exposed in the financial markets, Crescat’s three strategies…
Read More »»Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q3 2015
August 26, 2015
China’s economic crisis is in full swing and Crescat has been well positioned…
Read More »»Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q2 2015
June 11, 2015
Performance Update We are pleased to report that the Crescat Global Macro Fund was…
Read More »»Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q1 2015
March 17, 2015
Crescat nailed the oil trade in 2014, helping our hedge funds deliver some…
Read More »»Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q4 2014
October 22, 2014
Ebola outbreak. China economic slowdown. Hong Kong protests. Russia/Ukraine conflict. U.S. military strikes in Iraq and Syria. Europe in recession. The Fed…
Read More »»Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q3 2014
July 23, 2014
Over the long term, since each strategy’s inception, Crescat has delivered strong risk-adjusted returns based on high alpha, low beta, high absolute…
Read More »»Blast From the Past: Crescat Capital Investor Letter Q4 2006
October 26, 2006
Fall 2006: Crescat lays out the macro case for the housing bust, financial crisis, and recession before it all unfolds. The housing market…
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