June 28, 2022
After experiencing the largest government-financed consumption boost in history, household demand for goods and services is poised to fall off a cliff. The US economy simply cannot…
Read More »»After experiencing the largest government-financed consumption boost in history, household demand for goods and services is poised to fall off a cliff. The US economy simply cannot…
Read More »»Crescat’s May performance was negatively impacted by to the downturn in the precious metals markets. The pullback was caused by declining medium and long-term inflation expectations during…
Read More »»Too Soon to Buy the Dip, Unless It’s Commodities The valuation of the Wilshire 5000 US Total Stock Market Index reached a historic high of 207% of GDP…
Read More »»The Crescat Global Macro Fund delivered a great month in April, up 10.2%, during a broad selloff in the US equity market with the S&P 500 and…
Read More »»We are currently experiencing profound changes in the global economy that are likely to unleash a plethora of early-stage secular trends in a new inflationary regime. These…
Read More »»We are excited to report that Crescat has delivered strong absolute and relative performance across the firm year to date as financial markets have been in turmoil….
Read More »»For the first time in history, the US is experiencing a confluence of three macro extremes all at once: High government debt to GDP like the post-war…
Read More »»The Year of the Great Rotation Welcome to 2022. More than ever, we believe it is time to get out with the old and in with the new. At…
Read More »»Pipe Dreams and Ponzi Schemes Normally, as part of the creative destruction process in economic downturns, the financial system gets purged of excesses. In the subsequent recovery, the…
Read More »»Equity Market Warning The recent weakness in the broad US equity market is being masked by the outperformance of mega-market cap companies that remain near record valuations. With…
Read More »»The Catalyst for The Great Rotation Based on the firm’s current equity and macro models, and our investment team’s analysis, we believe we are in the explosive first…
Read More »»Where are we in the precious metals cycle? There is no shortage of questions on why gold has significantly underperformed during such an ideal macro setting. Let’s start by…
Read More »»We are experiencing a macro regime change that is an abrupt reversal of a four-decade trend of disinflation in the most financially repressive moment in history. With…
Read More »»The Psychology of Inflation Today’s macro environment is indeed very different than any other period we have experienced in the last four decades. Inflation…
Read More »»September 21, 2021 Dear Investors: Three Themes Coalescing With unsustainable imbalances in the global economy and financial markets today, we see unprecedented opportunities to grow and protect capital…
Read More »»August 30, 2021 Dear Investors: The Tech Bubble Then and Now In our analysis, the US stock market today is historically overextended and poses substantial risks….
Read More »»World-Renowned Gold Exploration Geologist, Quinton Hennigh, PhD, to Join Global Investment Manager, Crescat Capital Crescat Capital LLC, a Denver-based global investment manager, is pleased…
Read More »»We are excited to report that Crescat’s newest hedge fund, the Crescat Precious Metals Fund just finished its first full year with exceptionally strong results….
Read More »»Investors are always looking to history for guidance by attempting to find the most economically comparable period to the present. Two timeframes are the most…
Read More »»US Stock Market at Risk of P/E Deflation The US stock market is 51% overvalued and at risk of a 34% decline. The catalyst…
Read More »»A Tale of Two Destructive Outcomes The greatest long-term investments are those capable of performing well under opposing inflationary and deflationary economic forces. Today’s…
Read More »»We are pleased to report that Crescat had a strong May across all strategies. Performance was driven by our global fiat debasement macro theme which is the largest exposure across all Crescat strategies today. We express this theme through our activist precious metals’ positions...
Read More »»We strongly believe investors will want to get positioned now for the Great Rotation which is being catalyzed by the three macro drivers of inflation all firing in sync today: Demand Pull, Cost Push, and Monetary Debasement. Let us explain why we think inflation is real and what investors should be doing about it....
Read More »»"Miner" Setback - It is time to evaluate your level of exposure to precious metals. We believe the macro cycle for gold and silver has turned. This could be the last chance to build a position at depressed prices. The economy is likely headed into an inflationary period and it is time to act....
Read More »»A Collision of Macro Narratives - Two diverging schools of macro thoughts are prevalent today. One calls for a “Roaring 20s” redux while the other believes in a forthcoming liquidity crisis. Both narratives have valid points and flaws. To be clear, we find ourselves right in between the two. Let us elaborate......
Read More »»Crescat finished strong in 2020 to capture the top three spots in the Bloomberg News US hedge fund performance table for December. All three Crescat funds made it into Bloomberg’s top 10 for the full year with the Crescat Precious Metals Fund taking the #1 spot....
Read More »»History does not exactly repeat, but it often rhymes. The art and science of macro investing is comparing past business cycles with the present across a mosaic of different indicators and time frames to determine the most probable path forward for markets....
Read More »»Central banks are facing a serious predicament. After decades of ongoing accommodative monetary policy, the world is now sitting at record levels of debt relative to global GDP. In our view, there has never been a bigger gulf between underlying economic fundamentals and security prices......
Read More »»Equity bulls are coming into Q1 earnings reporting season amped up on Fed liquidity after a record $2.3 trillion of monetary stimulus announced last week. The problem is that the US economy just entered a massive asset bubble bursting recession....
Read More »»The bear case for US stocks has never been stronger. The set-up looks like January of 2018 when we were similarly bearish yet the market kept screaming higher. Our views were strongly vindicated in February and over the course of that year....
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