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Investment Research Investor Letters

Investor Letters

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    The Rise and Fall of the Consumer

    June 28, 2022

    After experiencing the largest government-financed consumption boost in history, household demand for goods and services is poised to fall off a cliff. The US economy simply cannot…

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    May Performance Estimates

    June 5, 2022

    Crescat’s May performance was negatively impacted by to the downturn in the precious metals markets. The pullback was caused by declining medium and long-term inflation expectations during…

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    May Research Letter – Too Soon

    May 29, 2022

    Too Soon to Buy the Dip, Unless It’s Commodities The valuation of the Wilshire 5000 US Total Stock Market Index reached a historic high of 207% of GDP…

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    April Performance Estimates

    May 1, 2022

    The Crescat Global Macro Fund delivered a great month in April, up 10.2%, during a broad selloff in the US equity market with the S&P 500 and…

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    A Plethora of New Macro Trends

    April 23, 2022

    We are currently experiencing profound changes in the global economy that are likely to unleash a plethora of early-stage secular trends in a new inflationary regime. These…

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    Crescat Thrives in Market Turmoil

    March 19, 2022

    We are excited to report that Crescat has delivered strong absolute and relative performance across the firm year to date as financial markets have been in turmoil….

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    February RESEARCH LETTER – A Trifecta of Macro Imbalances

    February 15, 2022

    For the first time in history, the US is experiencing a confluence of three macro extremes all at once: High government debt to GDP like the post-war…

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    December Performance Estimates

    January 4, 2022

    The Year of the Great Rotation Welcome to 2022. More than ever, we believe it is time to get out with the old and in with the new. At…

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    DECEMBER RESEARCH LETTER – Pipe dreams and ponzi schemes

    December 27, 2021

    Pipe Dreams and Ponzi Schemes Normally, as part of the creative destruction process in economic downturns, the financial system gets purged of excesses. In the subsequent recovery, the…

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    December Research Letter and Performance Update – Software is the Tell

    December 13, 2021

    Equity Market Warning The recent weakness in the broad US equity market is being masked by the outperformance of mega-market cap companies that remain near record valuations. With…

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    November Research Letter – The Catalyst for The Great Rotation

    November 13, 2021

    The Catalyst for The Great Rotation Based on the firm’s current equity and macro models, and our investment team’s analysis, we believe we are in the explosive first…

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    The Macro Case for Precious Metals

    October 26, 2021

    Where are we in the precious metals cycle? There is no shortage of questions on why gold has significantly underperformed during such an ideal macro setting. Let’s start by…

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    OCTOBER RESEARCH LETTER – A MACRO REGIME CHANGE

    October 24, 2021

    We are experiencing a macro regime change that is an abrupt reversal of a four-decade trend of disinflation in the most financially repressive moment in history. With…

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    September Performance Estimates

    October 10, 2021

    The Psychology of Inflation Today’s macro environment is indeed very different than any other period we have experienced in the last four decades. Inflation…

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    September RESEARCH LETTER-Three Themes Coalescing

    September 21, 2021

    September 21, 2021 Dear Investors: Three Themes Coalescing With unsustainable imbalances in the global economy and financial markets today, we see unprecedented opportunities to grow and protect capital…

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    August RESEARCH LETTER – The Tech Bubble Then and Now

    August 30, 2021

    August 30, 2021 Dear Investors: The Tech Bubble Then and Now In our analysis, the US stock market today is historically overextended and poses substantial risks….

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    Quinton Hennigh Joins Crescat Full-Time

    August 11, 2021

    World-Renowned Gold Exploration Geologist, Quinton Hennigh, PhD, to Join Global Investment Manager, Crescat Capital Crescat Capital LLC, a Denver-based global investment manager, is pleased…

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    July Performance Estimates

    August 7, 2021

    We are excited to report that Crescat’s newest hedge fund, the Crescat Precious Metals Fund just finished its first full year with exceptionally strong results….

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    July Research Letter-Not Your Mother’s Inflation

    July 27, 2021

    Investors are always looking to history for guidance by attempting to find the most economically comparable period to the present. Two timeframes are the most…

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    June Performance Estimates

    July 11, 2021

    US Stock Market at Risk of P/E Deflation The US stock market is 51% overvalued and at risk of a 34% decline. The catalyst…

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    June Research Letter-A Tale of Two Destructive Outcomes

    June 26, 2021

    A Tale of Two Destructive Outcomes The greatest long-term investments are those capable of performing well under opposing inflationary and deflationary economic forces. Today’s…

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    May Performance Estimates

    June 5, 2021

    We are pleased to report that Crescat had a strong May across all strategies. Performance was driven by our global fiat debasement macro theme which is the largest exposure across all Crescat strategies today. We express this theme through our activist precious metals’ positions...

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    May Research Letter-The 3 Pillars of Inflation

    May 19, 2021

    We strongly believe investors will want to get positioned now for the Great Rotation which is being catalyzed by the three macro drivers of inflation all firing in sync today: Demand Pull, Cost Push, and Monetary Debasement. Let us explain why we think inflation is real and what investors should be doing about it....

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    Crescat April Investor Letter

    April 30, 2021

    "Miner" Setback - It is time to evaluate your level of exposure to precious metals. We believe the macro cycle for gold and silver has turned. This could be the last chance to build a position at depressed prices. The economy is likely headed into an inflationary period and it is time to act....

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    March Research Letter

    March 30, 2021

    A Collision of Macro Narratives - Two diverging schools of macro thoughts are prevalent today. One calls for a “Roaring 20s” redux while the other believes in a forthcoming liquidity crisis. Both narratives have valid points and flaws. To be clear, we find ourselves right in between the two. Let us elaborate......

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    Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q4 2020

    January 28, 2021

    Crescat finished strong in 2020 to capture the top three spots in the Bloomberg News US hedge fund performance table for December. All three Crescat funds made it into Bloomberg’s top 10 for the full year with the Crescat Precious Metals Fund taking the #1 spot....

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    Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q3 2020

    October 27, 2020

    History does not exactly repeat, but it often rhymes. The art and science of macro investing is comparing past business cycles with the present across a mosaic of different indicators and time frames to determine the most probable path forward for markets....

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    Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q2 2020

    August 28, 2020

    Central banks are facing a serious predicament. After decades of ongoing accommodative monetary policy, the world is now sitting at record levels of debt relative to global GDP. In our view, there has never been a bigger gulf between underlying economic fundamentals and security prices......

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    Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q1 2020

    April 14, 2020

    Equity bulls are coming into Q1 earnings reporting season amped up on Fed liquidity after a record $2.3 trillion of monetary stimulus announced last week. The problem is that the US economy just entered a massive asset bubble bursting recession....

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    Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q4 2019

    January 29, 2020

    The bear case for US stocks has never been stronger. The set-up looks like January of 2018 when we were similarly bearish yet the market kept screaming higher. Our views were strongly vindicated in February and over the course of that year....

    Read More »»

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