May 1, 2022
The Crescat Global Macro Fund delivered a great month in April, up 10.2%, during a broad selloff in the US equity market with the S&P 500 and…
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A Plethora of New Macro Trends
April 23, 2022
We are currently experiencing profound changes in the global economy that are likely to unleash a plethora of early-stage secular trends in a new inflationary regime. These…
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Crescat Thrives in Market Turmoil
March 19, 2022
We are excited to report that Crescat has delivered strong absolute and relative performance across the firm year to date as financial markets have been in turmoil….
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February RESEARCH LETTER – A Trifecta of Macro Imbalances
February 15, 2022
For the first time in history, the US is experiencing a confluence of three macro extremes all at once: High government debt to GDP like the post-war…
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December Performance Estimates
January 4, 2022
The Year of the Great Rotation Welcome to 2022. More than ever, we believe it is time to get out with the old and in with the new. At…
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DECEMBER RESEARCH LETTER – Pipe dreams and ponzi schemes
December 27, 2021
Pipe Dreams and Ponzi Schemes Normally, as part of the creative destruction process in economic downturns, the financial system gets purged of excesses. In the subsequent recovery, the…
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December Research Letter and Performance Update – Software is the Tell
December 13, 2021
Equity Market Warning The recent weakness in the broad US equity market is being masked by the outperformance of mega-market cap companies that remain near record valuations. With…
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November Research Letter – The Catalyst for The Great Rotation
November 13, 2021
The Catalyst for The Great Rotation Based on the firm’s current equity and macro models, and our investment team’s analysis, we believe we are in the explosive first…
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The Macro Case for Precious Metals
October 26, 2021
Where are we in the precious metals cycle? There is no shortage of questions on why gold has significantly underperformed during such an ideal macro setting. Let’s start by…
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OCTOBER RESEARCH LETTER – A MACRO REGIME CHANGE
October 24, 2021
We are experiencing a macro regime change that is an abrupt reversal of a four-decade trend of disinflation in the most financially repressive moment in history. With…
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September Performance Estimates
October 10, 2021
The Psychology of Inflation Today’s macro environment is indeed very different than any other period we have experienced in the last four decades. Inflation…
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September RESEARCH LETTER-Three Themes Coalescing
September 21, 2021
September 21, 2021 Dear Investors: Three Themes Coalescing With unsustainable imbalances in the global economy and financial markets today, we see unprecedented opportunities to grow and protect capital…
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August RESEARCH LETTER – The Tech Bubble Then and Now
August 30, 2021
August 30, 2021 Dear Investors: The Tech Bubble Then and Now In our analysis, the US stock market today is historically overextended and poses substantial risks….
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Quinton Hennigh Joins Crescat Full-Time
August 11, 2021
World-Renowned Gold Exploration Geologist, Quinton Hennigh, PhD, to Join Global Investment Manager, Crescat Capital Crescat Capital LLC, a Denver-based global investment manager, is pleased…
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July Performance Estimates
August 7, 2021
We are excited to report that Crescat’s newest hedge fund, the Crescat Precious Metals Fund just finished its first full year with exceptionally strong results….
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July Research Letter-Not Your Mother’s Inflation
July 27, 2021
Investors are always looking to history for guidance by attempting to find the most economically comparable period to the present. Two timeframes are the most…
Read More »»June Performance Estimates
July 11, 2021
US Stock Market at Risk of P/E Deflation The US stock market is 51% overvalued and at risk of a 34% decline. The catalyst…
Read More »»June Research Letter-A Tale of Two Destructive Outcomes
June 26, 2021
A Tale of Two Destructive Outcomes The greatest long-term investments are those capable of performing well under opposing inflationary and deflationary economic forces. Today’s…
Read More »»May Performance Estimates
June 5, 2021
We are pleased to report that Crescat had a strong May across all strategies. Performance was driven by our global fiat debasement macro theme which is the largest exposure across all Crescat strategies today. We express this theme through our activist precious metals’ positions...
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May Research Letter-The 3 Pillars of Inflation
May 19, 2021
We strongly believe investors will want to get positioned now for the Great Rotation which is being catalyzed by the three macro drivers of inflation all firing in sync today: Demand Pull, Cost Push, and Monetary Debasement. Let us explain why we think inflation is real and what investors should be doing about it....
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Crescat April Investor Letter
April 30, 2021
"Miner" Setback - It is time to evaluate your level of exposure to precious metals. We believe the macro cycle for gold and silver has turned. This could be the last chance to build a position at depressed prices. The economy is likely headed into an inflationary period and it is time to act....
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March Research Letter
March 30, 2021
A Collision of Macro Narratives - Two diverging schools of macro thoughts are prevalent today. One calls for a “Roaring 20s” redux while the other believes in a forthcoming liquidity crisis. Both narratives have valid points and flaws. To be clear, we find ourselves right in between the two. Let us elaborate......
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Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q4 2020
January 28, 2021
Crescat finished strong in 2020 to capture the top three spots in the Bloomberg News US hedge fund performance table for December. All three Crescat funds made it into Bloomberg’s top 10 for the full year with the Crescat Precious Metals Fund taking the #1 spot....
Read More »»Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q3 2020
October 27, 2020
History does not exactly repeat, but it often rhymes. The art and science of macro investing is comparing past business cycles with the present across a mosaic of different indicators and time frames to determine the most probable path forward for markets....
Read More »»Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q2 2020
August 28, 2020
Central banks are facing a serious predicament. After decades of ongoing accommodative monetary policy, the world is now sitting at record levels of debt relative to global GDP. In our view, there has never been a bigger gulf between underlying economic fundamentals and security prices......
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Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q1 2020
April 14, 2020
Equity bulls are coming into Q1 earnings reporting season amped up on Fed liquidity after a record $2.3 trillion of monetary stimulus announced last week. The problem is that the US economy just entered a massive asset bubble bursting recession....
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Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q4 2019
January 29, 2020
The bear case for US stocks has never been stronger. The set-up looks like January of 2018 when we were similarly bearish yet the market kept screaming higher. Our views were strongly vindicated in February and over the course of that year....
Read More »»Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q3 2019
October 17, 2019
A breadth of deteriorating indicators is signaling an inflection point for the US stock market and economy. The percentage of inversions in the US yield curve surged to over 70% last month....
Read More »»Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q2 2019
July 23, 2019
We believe there is an opportunity to capitalize on a material downturn in the business cycle based on the composite of timing and imbalance indicators in Crescat’s 16-factor macro model....
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Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q1 2019
April 18, 2019
The year-to-date rally in global risk assets after the Fed flip appears to us to be a last gasp of speculative mania for the current economic cycle....
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