DECEMBER RESEARCH LETTER – Pipe dreams and ponzi schemes

Crescat Capital Monthly Research Letter

Pipe Dreams and Ponzi Schemes Normally, as part of the creative destruction process in economic downturns, the financial system gets purged of excesses. In the subsequent recovery, the health of the economy is restored in a natural way as new leadership arises from sectors and industries that are inherently different from those of the prior expansion. In the wake of …

December Research Letter and Performance Update – Software is the Tell

Crescat Capital Monthly Research Letter, Performance Update

Equity Market Warning The recent weakness in the broad US equity market is being masked by the outperformance of mega-market cap companies that remain near record valuations. With that in mind, it is remarkable to us how the NASDAQ Composite is just 2.6% from all-time highs while only 35% of its members are above the 200-day moving average. Such a …

November Research Letter – The Catalyst for The Great Rotation

Crescat Capital Monthly Research Letter

The Catalyst for The Great Rotation Based on the firm’s current equity and macro models, and our investment team’s analysis, we believe we are in the explosive first wave of an inflationary cycle in the US and globally that will elevate consumer prices at a much higher annualized rate and for significantly longer than priced into financial markets today. The …

OCTOBER RESEARCH LETTER – A MACRO REGIME CHANGE

Crescat Capital Crescat News and Updates, Monthly Research Letter

We are experiencing a macro regime change that is an abrupt reversal of a four-decade trend of disinflation in the most financially repressive moment in history. With the largest imbalances yet in both overall debt to GDP and financial asset valuations, the levitation of the entire equity and fixed income markets, and the stability of the economy, have become dependent …

September RESEARCH LETTER-Three Themes Coalescing

Crescat Capital Monthly Research Letter

September 21, 2021 Dear Investors: Three Themes Coalescing With unsustainable imbalances in the global economy and financial markets today, we see unprecedented opportunities to grow and protect capital in both the near and long term. Crescat is focused on investment strategies that offer uncommon value and appreciation potential. We believe that all of Crescat’s strategies offer an incredible entry point …

August RESEARCH LETTER – The Tech Bubble Then and Now

Crescat Capital Monthly Research Letter

August 30, 2021 Dear Investors: The Tech Bubble Then and Now In our analysis, the US stock market today is historically overextended and poses substantial risks. To understand, we need to start by comparing it with the tech bubble in 2000. When Bill Gates retired as CEO of Microsoft that year, he was the richest person in the world. His …