Whistling Past the Graveyard

Crescat Capital Monthly Research Letter, Research Letter & Performance Update

US policymakers continue to act as if they have the stability of the financial system, the economy, and consumer prices under control. Instead, their ongoing deficit spending and debt monetization since the 2008 crisis have created a trifecta of macro imbalances: Historic overvaluation of long-duration financial assets; Systemic solvency problems posed by excessive leverage; and Embedded structural inflation. This unholy …

A Vicious Stagflationary Environment

Crescat Capital Monthly Research Letter

Today’s restrictive Fed policies in a rapidly deteriorating economy are the preconditions for a steep recession. Contrary to the unprecedented monetary and fiscal support we had following the last economic downturn, we are currently experiencing a major withdrawal of liquidity at a time when corporate fundamentals are starting to contract. Despite the deepest yield curve inversion in decades, the Fed …

Back Up the Truck

Crescat Capital Monthly Research Letter

The recent pullback in commodities is a gift. It is allowing Crescat and our investors to secure even more of the world’s future critical resources at ultra-cheap valuations ahead of a new secular bull market. That is exactly what we have been doing, and it is already bearing significant fruit performance-wise in July. While commodities have sold off sharply recently, …

The Rise and Fall of the Consumer

Crescat Capital Monthly Research Letter

After experiencing the largest government-financed consumption boost in history, household demand for goods and services is poised to fall off a cliff. The US economy simply cannot handle the Fed’s continued monetary tightening. This is the onset of a vicious stagflationary environment. The unprecedented combination of excessive debt, the bursting of speculative asset bubbles, and the persistence of inflation due …

May Research Letter – Too Soon

Crescat Capital Monthly Research Letter

Too Soon to Buy the Dip, Unless It’s Commodities The valuation of the Wilshire 5000 US Total Stock Market Index reached a historic high of 207% of GDP in 2021 in the wake of the Covid-19 stimulus and record corporate earnings. We are now entering what in Crescat’s analysis is an inflationary recession. The index is off 15% from its …

A Plethora of New Macro Trends

Crescat Capital Monthly Research Letter

We are currently experiencing profound changes in the global economy that are likely to unleash a plethora of early-stage secular trends in a new inflationary regime. These are long-overdue structural shifts powered by decades of easy money policies and record levels of debt-to-GDP among developed economies: Governments and central banks to seek high-quality international reserves in attempt to restore the …

February RESEARCH LETTER – A Trifecta of Macro Imbalances

Crescat Capital Monthly Research Letter

For the first time in history, the US is experiencing a confluence of three macro extremes all at once: High government debt to GDP like the post-war 1940s Excessive stock market valuation on par with 1929 & 2000 bubbles A resource-driven inflationary crisis environment comparable to the 1970s Any one of these three economic states endangers the health of markets …

DECEMBER RESEARCH LETTER – Pipe dreams and ponzi schemes

Crescat Capital Monthly Research Letter

Pipe Dreams and Ponzi Schemes Normally, as part of the creative destruction process in economic downturns, the financial system gets purged of excesses. In the subsequent recovery, the health of the economy is restored in a natural way as new leadership arises from sectors and industries that are inherently different from those of the prior expansion. In the wake of …

December Research Letter and Performance Update – Software is the Tell

Crescat Capital Monthly Research Letter, Performance Update

Equity Market Warning The recent weakness in the broad US equity market is being masked by the outperformance of mega-market cap companies that remain near record valuations. With that in mind, it is remarkable to us how the NASDAQ Composite is just 2.6% from all-time highs while only 35% of its members are above the 200-day moving average. Such a …

November Research Letter – The Catalyst for The Great Rotation

Crescat Capital Monthly Research Letter

The Catalyst for The Great Rotation Based on the firm’s current equity and macro models, and our investment team’s analysis, we believe we are in the explosive first wave of an inflationary cycle in the US and globally that will elevate consumer prices at a much higher annualized rate and for significantly longer than priced into financial markets today. The …

September RESEARCH LETTER-Three Themes Coalescing

Crescat Capital Monthly Research Letter

September 21, 2021 Dear Investors: Three Themes Coalescing With unsustainable imbalances in the global economy and financial markets today, we see unprecedented opportunities to grow and protect capital in both the near and long term. Crescat is focused on investment strategies that offer uncommon value and appreciation potential. We believe that all of Crescat’s strategies offer an incredible entry point …

August RESEARCH LETTER – The Tech Bubble Then and Now

Crescat Capital Monthly Research Letter

August 30, 2021 Dear Investors: The Tech Bubble Then and Now In our analysis, the US stock market today is historically overextended and poses substantial risks. To understand, we need to start by comparing it with the tech bubble in 2000. When Bill Gates retired as CEO of Microsoft that year, he was the richest person in the world. His …