February 24, 2023
The last 12 months have marked one of the steepest Fed rate-hiking cycles in history. Meanwhile, financial conditions remain too loose for secular inflationary forces but too…
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Mispriced Inflation
January 22, 2023
In our view, inflation is the most mispriced macro variable in markets today. CPI growth is 5.1% higher over the last two years, but five-year forward inflation…
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Mining Industry Renaissance
December 16, 2022
We believe we are at a key inflection point for the precious metals industry today. The overwhelming social pressure to adopt the green revolution, renewable energy technologies,…
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Recession Looms
November 20, 2022
Recession Highly Probable The percentage of inversions in the US Treasury yield curve just breached the critical 70% level last week. As Tavi Costa’s research at Crescat shows,…
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The Golden Era of Macro Investing
October 19, 2022
The wheels are coming off the global economy. The painful increase in cost of debt in combination with the relentless appreciation of the US dollar and tightening…
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Seeking Value, Avoiding Bull Traps
September 28, 2022
In Crescat’s analysis, it is still way too risky to buy the dip in mega-cap tech stocks. Valuations are still higher than the PEAK of the dotcom…
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Sell Big Tech, Buy Explorers, Hedge with Yuan Puts
September 17, 2022
The Crescat Global Macro Fund was up 2.9% net in August and 38.8% net year to date. Mega Cap Growth shorts were the best performing theme overall…
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A Vicious Stagflationary Environment
August 25, 2022
Today’s restrictive Fed policies in a rapidly deteriorating economy are the preconditions for a steep recession. Contrary to the unprecedented monetary and fiscal support we had following…
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Liftoff
July 30, 2022
Crescat just finished a strong turnaround month. We are so excited about what we have going on in our portfolios that we wanted to deliver this important…
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Back Up the Truck
July 23, 2022
The recent pullback in commodities is a gift. It is allowing Crescat and our investors to secure even more of the world’s future critical resources at ultra-cheap…
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The Rise and Fall of the Consumer
June 28, 2022
After experiencing the largest government-financed consumption boost in history, household demand for goods and services is poised to fall off a cliff. The US economy simply cannot…
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May Performance Estimates
June 5, 2022
Crescat’s May performance was negatively impacted by to the downturn in the precious metals markets. The pullback was caused by declining medium and long-term inflation expectations during…
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May Research Letter – Too Soon
May 29, 2022
Too Soon to Buy the Dip, Unless It’s Commodities The valuation of the Wilshire 5000 US Total Stock Market Index reached a historic high of 207% of GDP…
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April Performance Estimates
May 1, 2022
The Crescat Global Macro Fund delivered a great month in April, up 10.2%, during a broad selloff in the US equity market with the S&P 500 and…
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A Plethora of New Macro Trends
April 23, 2022
We are currently experiencing profound changes in the global economy that are likely to unleash a plethora of early-stage secular trends in a new inflationary regime. These…
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Crescat Thrives in Market Turmoil
March 19, 2022
We are excited to report that Crescat has delivered strong absolute and relative performance across the firm year to date as financial markets have been in turmoil….
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February RESEARCH LETTER – A Trifecta of Macro Imbalances
February 15, 2022
For the first time in history, the US is experiencing a confluence of three macro extremes all at once: High government debt to GDP like the post-war…
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December Performance Estimates
January 4, 2022
The Year of the Great Rotation Welcome to 2022. More than ever, we believe it is time to get out with the old and in with the new. At…
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DECEMBER RESEARCH LETTER – Pipe dreams and ponzi schemes
December 27, 2021
Pipe Dreams and Ponzi Schemes Normally, as part of the creative destruction process in economic downturns, the financial system gets purged of excesses. In the subsequent recovery, the…
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December Research Letter and Performance Update – Software is the Tell
December 13, 2021
Equity Market Warning The recent weakness in the broad US equity market is being masked by the outperformance of mega-market cap companies that remain near record valuations. With…
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November Research Letter – The Catalyst for The Great Rotation
November 13, 2021
The Catalyst for The Great Rotation Based on the firm’s current equity and macro models, and our investment team’s analysis, we believe we are in the explosive first…
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The Macro Case for Precious Metals
October 26, 2021
Where are we in the precious metals cycle? There is no shortage of questions on why gold has significantly underperformed during such an ideal macro setting. Let’s start by…
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OCTOBER RESEARCH LETTER – A MACRO REGIME CHANGE
October 24, 2021
We are experiencing a macro regime change that is an abrupt reversal of a four-decade trend of disinflation in the most financially repressive moment in history. With…
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September Performance Estimates
October 10, 2021
The Psychology of Inflation Today’s macro environment is indeed very different than any other period we have experienced in the last four decades. Inflation…
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September RESEARCH LETTER-Three Themes Coalescing
September 21, 2021
September 21, 2021 Dear Investors: Three Themes Coalescing With unsustainable imbalances in the global economy and financial markets today, we see unprecedented opportunities to grow and protect capital…
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August RESEARCH LETTER – The Tech Bubble Then and Now
August 30, 2021
August 30, 2021 Dear Investors: The Tech Bubble Then and Now In our analysis, the US stock market today is historically overextended and poses substantial risks….
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Quinton Hennigh Joins Crescat Full-Time
August 11, 2021
World-Renowned Gold Exploration Geologist, Quinton Hennigh, PhD, to Join Global Investment Manager, Crescat Capital Crescat Capital LLC, a Denver-based global investment manager, is pleased…
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July Performance Estimates
August 7, 2021
We are excited to report that Crescat’s newest hedge fund, the Crescat Precious Metals Fund just finished its first full year with exceptionally strong results….
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July Research Letter-Not Your Mother’s Inflation
July 27, 2021
Investors are always looking to history for guidance by attempting to find the most economically comparable period to the present. Two timeframes are the most…
Read More »»June Performance Estimates
July 11, 2021
US Stock Market at Risk of P/E Deflation The US stock market is 51% overvalued and at risk of a 34% decline. The catalyst…
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