Crescat December Performance Update

Crescat Capital Crescat News and Updates

January 9, 2021 Dear Investors: The Great Rotation It is time to gird for full Modern Monetary Theory. With the democratic sweep in place, we are about to experience even more of the double-barreled fiscal and monetary stimulus that we saw in 2020. Overwhelmingly today, such policies have served to incite animal spirits toward financial assets. Investors are already positioned, …

December Research Letter

Crescat Capital Crescat News and Updates

December 23, 2020 The End Game Dear Investors: Markets are cyclical. Today, stocks trade at record high valuations while commodities are historically undervalued in relation. The setup is in place for a macro pivot in the relative performance of these two asset classes. Comparable conditions were present with the 1972 Nifty Fifty and 2000 Dotcom bubbles as we show in …

CRESCAT NOVEMBER PERFORMANCE UPDATE

Crescat Capital Crescat News and Updates

December 11, 2020 Dear Investors: From a timing perspective, the setup for selling overvalued US equities and buying undervalued precious metals today looks exceptional. The gold to S&P 500 ratio just posted its worst monthly decline in 37 years. In our analysis, this relative performance was an end of cycle move for the S&P 500 but only an early inning …

As Good As It Gets

Crescat Capital Crescat News and Updates

Dear Investors: Crescat Global Macro and Crescat Long/Short hedge funds are having a pullback month to date. We wanted to bring this to your attention because we think it presents an excellent buying opportunity for those considering adding money to Crescat for the end of this month. The opportunity is being caused by the recent run-up in equity markets. We …

Crescat November Research Letter

Crescat Capital Crescat News and Updates

Dear Investors: A Vicious Debt Spiral The structure of the global economy today is built on the incessant yet tenuous reliance on monetary and fiscal stimulus. To put it bluntly, policy makers are in a pickle. In accommodating struggling enterprises at large by piling new debt onto them, they have traded off future organic growth for economic zombification. At the …

Crescat October Performance Update

Crescat Capital Crescat News and Updates

November 14, 2020 Dear Investors: Crescat’s three hedge funds surged in October to maintain their year-to-date performance leadership within the universe of managers. The S&P 500 declined 2.4% in the same month as US election day neared. All five of the firm’s investment strategies substantially outperformed their benchmarks net of fees in 2020 and since inception. Collectively, the Crescat strategies …

Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q3 2020

Crescat Capital Quarterly Letter

October 27, 2020

Dear Investors:

History does not exactly repeat, but it often rhymes. The art and science of macro investing is comparing past business cycles with the present across a mosaic of different indicators and time frames to determine the most probable path forward for markets. Throughout time, financial markets and the economy have been intimately linked to cycles of expansion and contraction of …

The Reckoning Is Upon Us

Crescat Capital Crescat News and Updates

September 24, 2020 Dear Investors: The Reckoning Is Upon Us Decades of fiscal profligacy are culminating in an explosion of government debt that is poised to bring simmering monetary debasement to a boiling point. Central bank interventions have aided and abetted reckless government spending that has obfuscated poor underlying organic growth fundamentals. Instead of laying the groundwork for future real …

Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q2 2020

Crescat Capital Quarterly Letter

August 28, 2020

Dear Investors:

A New Bull Market for Precious Metals Central banks are facing a serious predicament. After decades of ongoing accommodative monetary policy, the world is now sitting at record levels of debt relative to global GDP. In our view, there has never been a bigger gulf between underlying economic fundamentals and security prices. We are in a global recession, but equity …

Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q1 2015

Crescat Capital Quarterly Letter

March 17, 2015

Dear Investors:

Download Letter (PDF) Crescat nailed the oil trade in 2014, helping our hedge funds deliver some of the best performance in the industry. Crescat Global Macro Hedge Fund was recognized by both Preqin and BarclayHedge as a top-10 performing macro hedge fund with a 25.8% net return. Crescat Long/Short Fund delivered a strong 23.2% net return, in the top 5 ...

Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q4 2014

Crescat Capital Quarterly Letter

October 22, 2014

Dear Investors:

Ebola outbreak. China economic slowdown. Hong Kong protests. Russia/Ukraine conflict. U.S. military strikes in Iraq and Syria. Europe in recession. The Fed potentially ending QE. There is no shortage of concerns regarding the global economy. Given those headlines, it’s about time we had the proverbial healthy 10% correction in stocks, and we already have. From the highs of the third ...

Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q3 2014

Crescat Capital Quarterly Letter

July 23, 2014

Dear Investors:

Over the long term, since each strategy's inception, Crescat has delivered strong risk-adjusted returns based on high alpha, low beta, high absolute returns, low downside deviation, and low correlation compared to market indices and other managers. Crescat has endured and prospered for its clients, producing these results cumulatively through two of the worst bear markets in history: the Tech Bubble ...

Blast From the Past: Crescat Capital Investor Letter Q4 2006

Crescat Capital Quarterly Letter

October 26, 2006

Dear Investors:

Fall 2006: Crescat lays out the macro case for the housing bust, financial crisis, and recession before it all unfolds. The housing market has played an enormous role in the US economic expansion over the last five years and we think it will play an enormous role in what will be likely a recession or a significant economic slowdown. We ...