September Performance Estimates

Crescat Capital Crescat Updates, Performance Update

The Psychology of Inflation Today’s macro environment is indeed very different than any other period we have experienced in the last four decades. Inflation is infiltrating the mindset of US households in a way not seen since the wage-price spirals of the 1970s. Prices for the goods and services that individuals require to meet basic needs have been increasing at …

September RESEARCH LETTER-Three Themes Coalescing

Crescat Capital Monthly Research Letter

September 21, 2021 Dear Investors: Three Themes Coalescing With unsustainable imbalances in the global economy and financial markets today, we see unprecedented opportunities to grow and protect capital in both the near and long term. Crescat is focused on investment strategies that offer uncommon value and appreciation potential. We believe that all of Crescat’s strategies offer an incredible entry point …

August RESEARCH LETTER – The Tech Bubble Then and Now

Crescat Capital Monthly Research Letter

August 30, 2021 Dear Investors: The Tech Bubble Then and Now In our analysis, the US stock market today is historically overextended and poses substantial risks. To understand, we need to start by comparing it with the tech bubble in 2000. When Bill Gates retired as CEO of Microsoft that year, he was the richest person in the world. His …

Quinton Hennigh Joins Crescat Full-Time

Crescat Capital Crescat News

World-Renowned Gold Exploration Geologist, Quinton Hennigh, PhD, to Join Global Investment Manager, Crescat Capital Crescat Capital LLC, a Denver-based global investment manager, is pleased to announce Quinton Hennigh, PhD, will become its full-time Geologic and Technical Director, effective August 16, 2021. As Crescat’s former independent advisor, Dr. Hennigh’s expertise has been a vital component to the firm’s success in its …

July Performance Estimates

Crescat Capital Performance Update

We are excited to report that Crescat’s newest hedge fund, the Crescat Precious Metals Fund just finished its first full year with exceptionally strong results. The fund was up an estimated 235.4% net in its debut year compared to a 5.8% decline for the benchmark Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index. Spot gold was down 8.2% over the same time frame, …

July Research Letter-Not Your Mother’s Inflation

Crescat Capital Quarterly Letter

July 27, 2021

Dear Investors:

Investors are always looking to history for guidance by attempting to find the most economically comparable period to the present. Two timeframes are the most conspicuous, the 1940s and the 1970s. Some macro investors today are citing the 1940s to validate the Fed’s hypothesis that the recent rise in consumer prices will prove to be transitory. Ironically, if the past …

June Performance Estimates

Crescat Capital Quarterly Letter

July 11, 2021

Dear Investors:

US Stock Market at Risk of P/E Deflation The US stock market is 51% overvalued and at risk of a 34% decline. The catalyst is inflation which has arrived in spades and is likely to stay for a while. We think shrewd investors should be getting positioned now for the Great Rotation to both protect against and profit from this …

June Research Letter-A Tale of Two Destructive Outcomes

Crescat Capital Quarterly Letter

June 26, 2021

Dear Investors:

A Tale of Two Destructive Outcomes The greatest long-term investments are those capable of performing well under opposing inflationary and deflationary economic forces. Today’s abundance of macro, fundamental and technical reasons to be a gold investor have never been greater. The ongoing monetary and fiscal disorder in the global economy underpins the onset of a secular bull market in precious …

May Performance Estimates

Crescat Capital Quarterly Letter

June 05, 2021

Dear Investors:

We are pleased to report that Crescat had a strong May across all strategies: Performance was driven by our global fiat debasement macro theme which is the largest exposure across all Crescat strategies today. We express this theme through our activist precious metals’ positions. Seven of these positions contributed outstanding gains in May across our hedge funds and precious metals …

May Research Letter-The 3 Pillars of Inflation

Crescat Capital Quarterly Letter

May 19, 2021

Dear Investors:

The Three Pillars of Inflation We strongly believe investors will want to get positioned now for the Great Rotation which is being catalyzed by the three macro drivers of inflation all firing in sync today: Demand Pull Cost Push Monetary Debasement Let us explain why we think inflation is real and what investors should be doing about it. The Demand …

Crescat April Investor Letter

Crescat Capital Quarterly Letter

April 30, 2021

Dear Investors:

April 30, 2021 Dear Investors: “Miner” Setback It is time to evaluate your level of exposure to precious metals. We believe the macro cycle for gold and silver has turned. This could be the last chance to build a position at depressed prices. The economy is likely headed into an inflationary period and it is time to act. Deloitte has …

March Research Letter

Crescat Capital Quarterly Letter

March 30, 2021

Dear Investors:

March 30, 2021 Dear Investors: Two diverging schools of macro thoughts are prevalent today. One calls for a “Roaring 20s” redux while the other believes in a forthcoming liquidity crisis. Both narratives have valid points and flaws. To be clear, we find ourselves right in between the two. Let us elaborate. The central argument of the reflationary thesis is that …

February Research Letter

Crescat Capital Crescat News and Updates

The Fed is Trapped Dear Investors: The year is just getting started and the US fiscal deficit already reached another record, now at its worst level in 70 years. The Fed is facing its worst predicament yet. The current fiscal spending path will lead to record Treasury issuance this year. Foreign investors are unlikely to be the ones funding this …

Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q4 2020

Crescat Capital Quarterly Letter

January 28, 2021

Dear Investors:

Crescat finished strong in 2020 to capture the top three spots in the Bloomberg News US hedge fund performance table for December. All three Crescat funds made it into Bloomberg’s top 10 for the full year with the Crescat Precious Metals Fund taking the #1 spot. We are working as hard as ever to continue to deliver in 2021. We …

Crescat December Performance Update

Crescat Capital Crescat News and Updates

January 9, 2021 Dear Investors: The Great Rotation It is time to gird for full Modern Monetary Theory. With the democratic sweep in place, we are about to experience even more of the double-barreled fiscal and monetary stimulus that we saw in 2020. Overwhelmingly today, such policies have served to incite animal spirits toward financial assets. Investors are already positioned, …

December Research Letter

Crescat Capital Crescat News and Updates

December 23, 2020 The End Game Dear Investors: Markets are cyclical. Today, stocks trade at record high valuations while commodities are historically undervalued in relation. The setup is in place for a macro pivot in the relative performance of these two asset classes. Comparable conditions were present with the 1972 Nifty Fifty and 2000 Dotcom bubbles as we show in …

CRESCAT NOVEMBER PERFORMANCE UPDATE

Crescat Capital Crescat News and Updates

December 11, 2020 Dear Investors: From a timing perspective, the setup for selling overvalued US equities and buying undervalued precious metals today looks exceptional. The gold to S&P 500 ratio just posted its worst monthly decline in 37 years. In our analysis, this relative performance was an end of cycle move for the S&P 500 but only an early inning …

As Good As It Gets

Crescat Capital Crescat News and Updates

Dear Investors: Crescat Global Macro and Crescat Long/Short hedge funds are having a pullback month to date. We wanted to bring this to your attention because we think it presents an excellent buying opportunity for those considering adding money to Crescat for the end of this month. The opportunity is being caused by the recent run-up in equity markets. We …

Crescat November Research Letter

Crescat Capital Crescat News and Updates

Dear Investors: A Vicious Debt Spiral The structure of the global economy today is built on the incessant yet tenuous reliance on monetary and fiscal stimulus. To put it bluntly, policy makers are in a pickle. In accommodating struggling enterprises at large by piling new debt onto them, they have traded off future organic growth for economic zombification. At the …

Crescat October Performance Update

Crescat Capital Crescat News and Updates

November 14, 2020 Dear Investors: Crescat’s three hedge funds surged in October to maintain their year-to-date performance leadership within the universe of managers. The S&P 500 declined 2.4% in the same month as US election day neared. All five of the firm’s investment strategies substantially outperformed their benchmarks net of fees in 2020 and since inception. Collectively, the Crescat strategies …

Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q3 2020

Crescat Capital Quarterly Letter

October 27, 2020

Dear Investors:

History does not exactly repeat, but it often rhymes. The art and science of macro investing is comparing past business cycles with the present across a mosaic of different indicators and time frames to determine the most probable path forward for markets. Throughout time, financial markets and the economy have been intimately linked to cycles of expansion and contraction of …

The Reckoning Is Upon Us

Crescat Capital Crescat News and Updates

September 24, 2020 Dear Investors: The Reckoning Is Upon Us Decades of fiscal profligacy are culminating in an explosion of government debt that is poised to bring simmering monetary debasement to a boiling point. Central bank interventions have aided and abetted reckless government spending that has obfuscated poor underlying organic growth fundamentals. Instead of laying the groundwork for future real …

Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q2 2020

Crescat Capital Quarterly Letter

August 28, 2020

Dear Investors:

A New Bull Market for Precious Metals Central banks are facing a serious predicament. After decades of ongoing accommodative monetary policy, the world is now sitting at record levels of debt relative to global GDP. In our view, there has never been a bigger gulf between underlying economic fundamentals and security prices. We are in a global recession, but equity …

Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q1 2015

Crescat Capital Quarterly Letter

March 17, 2015

Dear Investors:

Download Letter (PDF) Crescat nailed the oil trade in 2014, helping our hedge funds deliver some of the best performance in the industry. Crescat Global Macro Hedge Fund was recognized by both Preqin and BarclayHedge as a top-10 performing macro hedge fund with a 25.8% net return. Crescat Long/Short Fund delivered a strong 23.2% net return, in the top 5 ...

Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q4 2014

Crescat Capital Quarterly Letter

October 22, 2014

Dear Investors:

Ebola outbreak. China economic slowdown. Hong Kong protests. Russia/Ukraine conflict. U.S. military strikes in Iraq and Syria. Europe in recession. The Fed potentially ending QE. There is no shortage of concerns regarding the global economy. Given those headlines, it’s about time we had the proverbial healthy 10% correction in stocks, and we already have. From the highs of the third ...

Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q3 2014

Crescat Capital Quarterly Letter

July 23, 2014

Dear Investors:

Over the long term, since each strategy's inception, Crescat has delivered strong risk-adjusted returns based on high alpha, low beta, high absolute returns, low downside deviation, and low correlation compared to market indices and other managers. Crescat has endured and prospered for its clients, producing these results cumulatively through two of the worst bear markets in history: the Tech Bubble ...

Blast From the Past: Crescat Capital Investor Letter Q4 2006

Crescat Capital Quarterly Letter

October 26, 2006

Dear Investors:

Fall 2006: Crescat lays out the macro case for the housing bust, financial crisis, and recession before it all unfolds. The housing market has played an enormous role in the US economic expansion over the last five years and we think it will play an enormous role in what will be likely a recession or a significant economic slowdown. We ...