April Performance Estimates

Crescat Capital Performance Update

The Crescat Global Macro Fund delivered a great month in April, up 10.2%, during a broad selloff in the US equity market with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices down 8.7% and 13.3% respectively. Our US dollar versus Chinese yuan long call options, equity short themes, and high yield bond put options delivered the bulk of the profits as …

A Plethora of New Macro Trends

Crescat Capital Monthly Research Letter

We are currently experiencing profound changes in the global economy that are likely to unleash a plethora of early-stage secular trends in a new inflationary regime. These are long-overdue structural shifts powered by decades of easy money policies and record levels of debt-to-GDP among developed economies: Governments and central banks to seek high-quality international reserves in attempt to restore the …

Crescat Thrives in Market Turmoil

Crescat Capital Performance Update

We are excited to report that Crescat has delivered strong absolute and relative performance across the firm year to date as financial markets have been in turmoil. Crescat’s flagship Global Macro Fund is up an estimated 25.6% net year-to-date through March 18. In comparison, the S&P 500 is down 6.1% while the HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index is down an …

February RESEARCH LETTER – A Trifecta of Macro Imbalances

Crescat Capital Monthly Research Letter

For the first time in history, the US is experiencing a confluence of three macro extremes all at once: High government debt to GDP like the post-war 1940s Excessive stock market valuation on par with 1929 & 2000 bubbles A resource-driven inflationary crisis environment comparable to the 1970s Any one of these three economic states endangers the health of markets …

December Performance Estimates

Crescat Capital Crescat News and Updates, Performance Update

The Year of the Great Rotation Welcome to 2022. More than ever, we believe it is time to get out with the old and in with the new. At Crescat, we believe investors today face a twofold problem: The imperative to not get sucked into a financial asset bubble destined to implode. The need to outpace structurally rising inflation. Starting …

DECEMBER RESEARCH LETTER – Pipe dreams and ponzi schemes

Crescat Capital Monthly Research Letter

Pipe Dreams and Ponzi Schemes Normally, as part of the creative destruction process in economic downturns, the financial system gets purged of excesses. In the subsequent recovery, the health of the economy is restored in a natural way as new leadership arises from sectors and industries that are inherently different from those of the prior expansion. In the wake of …

December Research Letter and Performance Update – Software is the Tell

Crescat Capital Monthly Research Letter, Performance Update

Equity Market Warning The recent weakness in the broad US equity market is being masked by the outperformance of mega-market cap companies that remain near record valuations. With that in mind, it is remarkable to us how the NASDAQ Composite is just 2.6% from all-time highs while only 35% of its members are above the 200-day moving average. Such a …

November Research Letter – The Catalyst for The Great Rotation

Crescat Capital Monthly Research Letter

The Catalyst for The Great Rotation Based on the firm’s current equity and macro models, and our investment team’s analysis, we believe we are in the explosive first wave of an inflationary cycle in the US and globally that will elevate consumer prices at a much higher annualized rate and for significantly longer than priced into financial markets today. The …

The Macro Case for Precious Metals

Crescat Capital Macro Research

Where are we in the precious metals cycle? There is no shortage of questions on why gold has significantly underperformed during such an ideal macro setting. Let’s start by looking at the usual fundamental trends of this industry as part of prior historical cycles. Gold and silver stocks have never peaked at historically undervalued levels. Miners are now trading at …

OCTOBER RESEARCH LETTER – A MACRO REGIME CHANGE

Crescat Capital Crescat News and Updates, Monthly Research Letter

We are experiencing a macro regime change that is an abrupt reversal of a four-decade trend of disinflation in the most financially repressive moment in history. With the largest imbalances yet in both overall debt to GDP and financial asset valuations, the levitation of the entire equity and fixed income markets, and the stability of the economy, have become dependent …

September Performance Estimates

Crescat Capital Crescat Updates, Performance Update

The Psychology of Inflation Today’s macro environment is indeed very different than any other period we have experienced in the last four decades. Inflation is infiltrating the mindset of US households in a way not seen since the wage-price spirals of the 1970s. Prices for the goods and services that individuals require to meet basic needs have been increasing at …

September RESEARCH LETTER-Three Themes Coalescing

Crescat Capital Monthly Research Letter

September 21, 2021 Dear Investors: Three Themes Coalescing With unsustainable imbalances in the global economy and financial markets today, we see unprecedented opportunities to grow and protect capital in both the near and long term. Crescat is focused on investment strategies that offer uncommon value and appreciation potential. We believe that all of Crescat’s strategies offer an incredible entry point …

August RESEARCH LETTER – The Tech Bubble Then and Now

Crescat Capital Monthly Research Letter

August 30, 2021 Dear Investors: The Tech Bubble Then and Now In our analysis, the US stock market today is historically overextended and poses substantial risks. To understand, we need to start by comparing it with the tech bubble in 2000. When Bill Gates retired as CEO of Microsoft that year, he was the richest person in the world. His …

Quinton Hennigh Joins Crescat Full-Time

Crescat Capital Crescat News

World-Renowned Gold Exploration Geologist, Quinton Hennigh, PhD, to Join Global Investment Manager, Crescat Capital Crescat Capital LLC, a Denver-based global investment manager, is pleased to announce Quinton Hennigh, PhD, will become its full-time Geologic and Technical Director, effective August 16, 2021. As Crescat’s former independent advisor, Dr. Hennigh’s expertise has been a vital component to the firm’s success in its …

July Performance Estimates

Crescat Capital Performance Update

We are excited to report that Crescat’s newest hedge fund, the Crescat Precious Metals Fund just finished its first full year with exceptionally strong results. The fund was up an estimated 235.4% net in its debut year compared to a 5.8% decline for the benchmark Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index. Spot gold was down 8.2% over the same time frame, …

July Research Letter-Not Your Mother’s Inflation

Crescat Capital Quarterly Letter

July 27, 2021

Dear Investors:

Investors are always looking to history for guidance by attempting to find the most economically comparable period to the present. Two timeframes are the most conspicuous, the 1940s and the 1970s. Some macro investors today are citing the 1940s to validate the Fed’s hypothesis that the recent rise in consumer prices will prove to be transitory. Ironically, if the past …

June Performance Estimates

Crescat Capital Quarterly Letter

July 11, 2021

Dear Investors:

US Stock Market at Risk of P/E Deflation The US stock market is 51% overvalued and at risk of a 34% decline. The catalyst is inflation which has arrived in spades and is likely to stay for a while. We think shrewd investors should be getting positioned now for the Great Rotation to both protect against and profit from this …

June Research Letter-A Tale of Two Destructive Outcomes

Crescat Capital Quarterly Letter

June 26, 2021

Dear Investors:

A Tale of Two Destructive Outcomes The greatest long-term investments are those capable of performing well under opposing inflationary and deflationary economic forces. Today’s abundance of macro, fundamental and technical reasons to be a gold investor have never been greater. The ongoing monetary and fiscal disorder in the global economy underpins the onset of a secular bull market in precious …

May Performance Estimates

Crescat Capital Quarterly Letter

June 05, 2021

Dear Investors:

We are pleased to report that Crescat had a strong May across all strategies: Performance was driven by our global fiat debasement macro theme which is the largest exposure across all Crescat strategies today. We express this theme through our activist precious metals’ positions. Seven of these positions contributed outstanding gains in May across our hedge funds and precious metals …

May Research Letter-The 3 Pillars of Inflation

Crescat Capital Quarterly Letter

May 19, 2021

Dear Investors:

The Three Pillars of Inflation We strongly believe investors will want to get positioned now for the Great Rotation which is being catalyzed by the three macro drivers of inflation all firing in sync today: Demand Pull Cost Push Monetary Debasement Let us explain why we think inflation is real and what investors should be doing about it. The Demand …

Crescat April Investor Letter

Crescat Capital Quarterly Letter

April 30, 2021

Dear Investors:

April 30, 2021 Dear Investors: “Miner” Setback It is time to evaluate your level of exposure to precious metals. We believe the macro cycle for gold and silver has turned. This could be the last chance to build a position at depressed prices. The economy is likely headed into an inflationary period and it is time to act. Deloitte has …

March Research Letter

Crescat Capital Quarterly Letter

March 30, 2021

Dear Investors:

March 30, 2021 Dear Investors: Two diverging schools of macro thoughts are prevalent today. One calls for a “Roaring 20s” redux while the other believes in a forthcoming liquidity crisis. Both narratives have valid points and flaws. To be clear, we find ourselves right in between the two. Let us elaborate. The central argument of the reflationary thesis is that …

February Research Letter

Crescat Capital Crescat News and Updates

The Fed is Trapped Dear Investors: The year is just getting started and the US fiscal deficit already reached another record, now at its worst level in 70 years. The Fed is facing its worst predicament yet. The current fiscal spending path will lead to record Treasury issuance this year. Foreign investors are unlikely to be the ones funding this …

Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q4 2020

Crescat Capital Quarterly Letter

January 28, 2021

Dear Investors:

Crescat finished strong in 2020 to capture the top three spots in the Bloomberg News US hedge fund performance table for December. All three Crescat funds made it into Bloomberg’s top 10 for the full year with the Crescat Precious Metals Fund taking the #1 spot. We are working as hard as ever to continue to deliver in 2021. We …

Crescat December Performance Update

Crescat Capital Crescat News and Updates

January 9, 2021 Dear Investors: The Great Rotation It is time to gird for full Modern Monetary Theory. With the democratic sweep in place, we are about to experience even more of the double-barreled fiscal and monetary stimulus that we saw in 2020. Overwhelmingly today, such policies have served to incite animal spirits toward financial assets. Investors are already positioned, …

December Research Letter

Crescat Capital Crescat News and Updates

December 23, 2020 The End Game Dear Investors: Markets are cyclical. Today, stocks trade at record high valuations while commodities are historically undervalued in relation. The setup is in place for a macro pivot in the relative performance of these two asset classes. Comparable conditions were present with the 1972 Nifty Fifty and 2000 Dotcom bubbles as we show in …

CRESCAT NOVEMBER PERFORMANCE UPDATE

Crescat Capital Crescat News and Updates

December 11, 2020 Dear Investors: From a timing perspective, the setup for selling overvalued US equities and buying undervalued precious metals today looks exceptional. The gold to S&P 500 ratio just posted its worst monthly decline in 37 years. In our analysis, this relative performance was an end of cycle move for the S&P 500 but only an early inning …

As Good As It Gets

Crescat Capital Crescat News and Updates

Dear Investors: Crescat Global Macro and Crescat Long/Short hedge funds are having a pullback month to date. We wanted to bring this to your attention because we think it presents an excellent buying opportunity for those considering adding money to Crescat for the end of this month. The opportunity is being caused by the recent run-up in equity markets. We …

Crescat November Research Letter

Crescat Capital Crescat News and Updates

Dear Investors: A Vicious Debt Spiral The structure of the global economy today is built on the incessant yet tenuous reliance on monetary and fiscal stimulus. To put it bluntly, policy makers are in a pickle. In accommodating struggling enterprises at large by piling new debt onto them, they have traded off future organic growth for economic zombification. At the …

Crescat October Performance Update

Crescat Capital Crescat News and Updates

November 14, 2020 Dear Investors: Crescat’s three hedge funds surged in October to maintain their year-to-date performance leadership within the universe of managers. The S&P 500 declined 2.4% in the same month as US election day neared. All five of the firm’s investment strategies substantially outperformed their benchmarks net of fees in 2020 and since inception. Collectively, the Crescat strategies …