February 28, 2024
Valuation extremes combined with macro inflection signals provide generational opportunities to position opposite the crowd for potentially large gains. At Crescat, we live for such times. We…
Read More »»Valuation extremes combined with macro inflection signals provide generational opportunities to position opposite the crowd for potentially large gains. At Crescat, we live for such times. We…
Read More »»The current macro environment across global equity markets presents a sharply divided investment setup for 2024 and the remainder of the decade. While our concerns are fueled…
Read More »»Season’s Greetings and Happy Holidays from Crescat! Our overriding Great Rotation theme just received a jumpstart with the Fed’s pivot to easier monetary policy at its December 13…
Read More »»A Profusion of Recession Indicators Despite the growing popularity of the soft-landing narrative, the current scenario presents a multitude of macro factors forewarning a major recession. The dangerous…
Read More »»Investors in US Treasury bonds have experienced extraordinary losses in the post-Covid stimulus era as evidenced by the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (Ticker: TLT) which…
Read More »»Crescat’s three hedge funds delivered strong performance in September in a down month for broad equity and fixed-income markets. All five short themes in the Global Macro…
Read More »»We believe conventional investment strategies are poised to undergo a significant restructuring, placing a prominent emphasis on investments in hard assets. As illustrated in the accompanying chart,…
Read More »»I am writing this personal letter to Crescat’s clients and followers ahead of our regular monthly research letter to literally pound the table on what I believe…
Read More »»There is a high probability of a recession in the next twelve months according to the NY Fed’s statistically significant yield-curve inversion model. One wouldn’t know it…
Read More »»Monetary and fiscal authorities are currently running what we believe are unsustainably divergent policies. The simultaneous rise in the cost of debt by central banks and their…
Read More »»Dear Investors: At Crescat, we have three overriding, high-conviction macro themes supported by our independent research and proprietary models that we believe are poised to unfold in rapid…
Read More »»The US debt ceiling issues likely present a much greater risk to financial markets than currently perceived by investors. Although prior concerns related to this matter have…
Read More »»US policymakers continue to act as if they have the stability of the financial system, the economy, and consumer prices under control. Instead, their ongoing deficit spending…
Read More »»The last 12 months have marked one of the steepest Fed rate-hiking cycles in history. Meanwhile, financial conditions remain too loose for secular inflationary forces but too…
Read More »»In our view, inflation is the most mispriced macro variable in markets today. CPI growth is 5.1% higher over the last two years, but five-year forward inflation…
Read More »»We believe we are at a key inflection point for the precious metals industry today. The overwhelming social pressure to adopt the green revolution, renewable energy technologies,…
Read More »»Recession Highly Probable The percentage of inversions in the US Treasury yield curve just breached the critical 70% level last week. As Tavi Costa’s research at Crescat shows,…
Read More »»The wheels are coming off the global economy. The painful increase in cost of debt in combination with the relentless appreciation of the US dollar and tightening…
Read More »»In Crescat’s analysis, it is still way too risky to buy the dip in mega-cap tech stocks. Valuations are still higher than the PEAK of the dotcom…
Read More »»The Crescat Global Macro Fund was up 2.9% net in August and 38.8% net year to date. Mega Cap Growth shorts were the best performing theme overall…
Read More »»Today’s restrictive Fed policies in a rapidly deteriorating economy are the preconditions for a steep recession. Contrary to the unprecedented monetary and fiscal support we had following…
Read More »»Crescat just finished a strong turnaround month. We are so excited about what we have going on in our portfolios that we wanted to deliver this important…
Read More »»The recent pullback in commodities is a gift. It is allowing Crescat and our investors to secure even more of the world’s future critical resources at ultra-cheap…
Read More »»After experiencing the largest government-financed consumption boost in history, household demand for goods and services is poised to fall off a cliff. The US economy simply cannot…
Read More »»Crescat’s May performance was negatively impacted by to the downturn in the precious metals markets. The pullback was caused by declining medium and long-term inflation expectations during…
Read More »»Too Soon to Buy the Dip, Unless It’s Commodities The valuation of the Wilshire 5000 US Total Stock Market Index reached a historic high of 207% of GDP…
Read More »»The Crescat Global Macro Fund delivered a great month in April, up 10.2%, during a broad selloff in the US equity market with the S&P 500 and…
Read More »»We are currently experiencing profound changes in the global economy that are likely to unleash a plethora of early-stage secular trends in a new inflationary regime. These…
Read More »»