A Macro Shift at Hand

    February 28, 2024

    Valuation extremes combined with macro inflection signals provide generational opportunities to position opposite the crowd for potentially large gains. At Crescat, we live for such times. We…

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    Buy Low, Sell High

    January 14, 2024

    The current macro environment across global equity markets presents a sharply divided investment setup for 2024 and the remainder of the decade. While our concerns are fueled…

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    Deconstructing the Powell Pivot

    December 23, 2023

    Season’s Greetings and Happy Holidays from Crescat! Our overriding Great Rotation theme just received a jumpstart with the Fed’s pivot to easier monetary policy at its December 13…

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    A Profusion of Recession Indicators

    November 26, 2023

    A Profusion of Recession Indicators Despite the growing popularity of the soft-landing narrative, the current scenario presents a multitude of macro factors forewarning a major recession. The dangerous…

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    Something More Has to Give

    October 30, 2023

    Investors in US Treasury bonds have experienced extraordinary losses in the post-Covid stimulus era as evidenced by the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (Ticker: TLT) which…

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    September Performance and Positioning Update

    October 9, 2023

    Crescat’s three hedge funds delivered strong performance in September in a down month for broad equity and fixed-income markets. All five short themes in the Global Macro…

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    Redefining 60/40 Portfolios

    September 16, 2023

    We believe conventional investment strategies are poised to undergo a significant restructuring, placing a prominent emphasis on investments in hard assets. As illustrated in the accompanying chart,…

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    A Clarion Call to Macro and Value Investors

    September 15, 2023

    I am writing this personal letter to Crescat’s clients and followers ahead of our regular monthly research letter to literally pound the table on what I believe…

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    Violent Repricing

    August 23, 2023

    There is a high probability of a recession in the next twelve months according to the NY Fed’s statistically significant yield-curve inversion model. One wouldn’t know it…

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    Monetary vs. Fiscal Dissonance

    July 21, 2023

    Monetary and fiscal authorities are currently running what we believe are unsustainably divergent policies. The simultaneous rise in the cost of debt by central banks and their…

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    Three Overriding Macro Themes

    June 24, 2023

    Dear Investors: At Crescat, we have three overriding, high-conviction macro themes supported by our independent research and proprietary models that we believe are poised to unfold in rapid…

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    Gold: A Far Superior Alternative

    May 26, 2023

    The US debt ceiling issues likely present a much greater risk to financial markets than currently perceived by investors. Although prior concerns related to this matter have…

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    Whistling Past the Graveyard

    April 26, 2023

    US policymakers continue to act as if they have the stability of the financial system, the economy, and consumer prices under control. Instead, their ongoing deficit spending…

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    Loosely Tight Conditions

    February 24, 2023

    The last 12 months have marked one of the steepest Fed rate-hiking cycles in history. Meanwhile, financial conditions remain too loose for secular inflationary forces but too…

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    Mispriced Inflation

    January 22, 2023

    In our view, inflation is the most mispriced macro variable in markets today. CPI growth is 5.1% higher over the last two years, but five-year forward inflation…

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    Mining Industry Renaissance

    December 16, 2022

    We believe we are at a key inflection point for the precious metals industry today. The overwhelming social pressure to adopt the green revolution, renewable energy technologies,…

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    Recession Looms

    November 20, 2022

    Recession Highly Probable The percentage of inversions in the US Treasury yield curve just breached the critical 70% level last week. As Tavi Costa’s research at Crescat shows,…

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    The Golden Era of Macro Investing

    October 19, 2022

    The wheels are coming off the global economy. The painful increase in cost of debt in combination with the relentless appreciation of the US dollar and tightening…

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    Seeking Value, Avoiding Bull Traps

    September 28, 2022

    In Crescat’s analysis, it is still way too risky to buy the dip in mega-cap tech stocks. Valuations are still higher than the PEAK of the dotcom…

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    Sell Big Tech, Buy Explorers, Hedge with Yuan Puts

    September 17, 2022

    The Crescat Global Macro Fund was up 2.9% net in August and 38.8% net year to date. Mega Cap Growth shorts were the best performing theme overall…

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    A Vicious Stagflationary Environment

    August 25, 2022

    Today’s restrictive Fed policies in a rapidly deteriorating economy are the preconditions for a steep recession. Contrary to the unprecedented monetary and fiscal support we had following…

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    Liftoff

    July 30, 2022

    Crescat just finished a strong turnaround month. We are so excited about what we have going on in our portfolios that we wanted to deliver this important…

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    Back Up the Truck

    July 23, 2022

    The recent pullback in commodities is a gift. It is allowing Crescat and our investors to secure even more of the world’s future critical resources at ultra-cheap…

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    The Rise and Fall of the Consumer

    June 28, 2022

    After experiencing the largest government-financed consumption boost in history, household demand for goods and services is poised to fall off a cliff. The US economy simply cannot…

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    May Performance Estimates

    June 5, 2022

    Crescat’s May performance was negatively impacted by to the downturn in the precious metals markets. The pullback was caused by declining medium and long-term inflation expectations during…

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    May Research Letter – Too Soon

    May 29, 2022

    Too Soon to Buy the Dip, Unless It’s Commodities The valuation of the Wilshire 5000 US Total Stock Market Index reached a historic high of 207% of GDP…

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    April Performance Estimates

    May 1, 2022

    The Crescat Global Macro Fund delivered a great month in April, up 10.2%, during a broad selloff in the US equity market with the S&P 500 and…

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    A Plethora of New Macro Trends

    April 23, 2022

    We are currently experiencing profound changes in the global economy that are likely to unleash a plethora of early-stage secular trends in a new inflationary regime. These…

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