Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q4 2019

Crescat Capital Quarterly Letter

January 29, 2020

Dear Investors:

Download PDF Version Bear Market Looms The bear case for US stocks has never been stronger. The set-up looks like January of 2018 when we were similarly bearish yet the market kept screaming higher. Our views were strongly vindicated in February and over the course of that year. The speculative mania of 2019 was wholly unwarranted, not supported by macro …

Running Hot

Crescat Capital Crescat News and Updates

Download PDF Version The highly probable and downright inevitable unwind of today’s trifecta of financial asset bubbles: stocks, corporate credit, and Treasury bonds may soon morph into brutal bear market. The end game is unstoppable in our view and approaching fast. The Fed is between a rock and a hard place. It has been printing money like it’s the depth …

The Impending End of A Mania

Crescat Capital Crescat News and Updates

Read PDF Version An important ratio of commodity versus equity valuations just reached a fresh 50-year low resembling two prior significant cyclical US stock market peaks in 1972 and 2000. Macro Imbalances There is a laundry list of dangerous assets bubbles in the global financial markets today that have built up over a record long US economic expansion: Highest ever …

Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q3 2019

Crescat Capital Quarterly Letter

October 17, 2019

Dear Investors:

Read PDF Version Outlook for US Stocks and the Economy A breadth of deteriorating indicators is signaling an inflection point for the US stock market and economy. The percentage of inversions in the US yield curve surged to over 70% last month. This level of upside-down term premium has always led to severe bear markets and recessions in the past. …

Necessary, Normal, and Inevitable

Crescat Capital Crescat News and Updates

Read This Letter in PDF Form Dear Investors: Recessions become self-fulfilling prophesies late in an economic expansion at a point when people finally start believing and acting like one is imminent. It is particularly true when asset bubbles are present. A huge spike in concerns about the economy as measured by Google Trends analysis of the search word “recession” was …

Crescat’s Macro Trade Heating Up

Crescat Capital Crescat News and Updates

Read This Letter in PDF Form Dear Investors: Crescat’s “macro trade of the century” has just heated up significantly in August. In just the first two and a half trading days of the month, the Crescat Global Macro fund is up an estimated net 15.6% net MTD while the S&P 500 is down approximately 4.9%. All three legs of our …

Crescat Capital Quarterly Investor Letter Q2 2019

Crescat Capital Quarterly Letter

July 23, 2019

Dear Investors:

    Download This Letter in PDF Form We believe there is an opportunity to capitalize on a material downturn in the business cycle based on the composite of timing and imbalance indicators in Crescat’s 16-factor macro model. US Equity Markets The downturn could be particularly brutal for US stocks because we are record late in a fading economic expansion …

Crescat Capital Current Views

Kevin Smith shared his macro views on TD Ameritrade Network. “We are committed to our bearish positioning here given the huge number of macro signals that we have today pointing to a downturn.”