Category Archive

Tavi built Crescat’s macro model that identifies the current stage of the US economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors. His research has been featured multiple times in financial publications.

Tavi Costa says opportunity may be knocking for one sector that’s been down in the dumps for a while. Oil-service stocks “have never looked so cheap,” Costa said in a tweet.

Download PDF Version The highly probable and downright inevitable unwind of today’s trifecta of financial asset bubbles: stocks, corporate credit, and Treasury bonds may soon morph into brutal bear market. The end game is unstoppable in our view and approaching fast. The Fed is between a rock and a hard place. It has been printing money like it’s the depth …

Read PDF Version An important ratio of commodity versus equity valuations just reached a fresh 50-year low resembling two prior significant cyclical US stock market peaks in 1972 and 2000. Macro Imbalances There is a laundry list of dangerous assets bubbles in the global financial markets today that have built up over a record long US economic expansion: Highest ever …

Kevin Smith joined  SBTV for an update on the inversion of the yield curve, the looming threat from collateralized loan obligations and why silver will be gold on steroids in this bull market.

Is the 36-year-old currency peg between Hong Kong and the U.S. on the verge of collapse? Kevin Smith explains his short thesis on the Chinese Yuan and Hong Kong Dollar in his most recent Real Vision interview.

Tavi sees the current business cycle as being almost over and is awaiting an overall downturn in equities. Yield curves are inverting in most countries, and in Canada, 90 percent are now inverted.

Read This Letter in PDF Form Dear Investors: Recessions become self-fulfilling prophesies late in an economic expansion at a point when people finally start believing and acting like one is imminent. It is particularly true when asset bubbles are present. A huge spike in concerns about the economy as measured by Google Trends analysis of the search word “recession” was …

Several macro hedge funds are on track for a banner month in August as fears of slowing global growth and protracted trade tensions sparked a long-awaited resurgence of volatility in currency and credit markets.

The stock market has gotten off to a brutal start this month, with the S&P 500 index down about 5% since it started unraveling last Thursday.

Read This Letter in PDF Form Dear Investors: Crescat’s “macro trade of the century” has just heated up significantly in August. In just the first two and a half trading days of the month, the Crescat Global Macro fund is up an estimated net 15.6% net MTD while the S&P 500 is down approximately 4.9%. All three legs of our …

An economic downturn is on its way and the best hedge against a major stock market sell-off is gold, silver, and mining stocks, which are all “widely under-owned” at the moment, said hedge fund Crescat Capital.

“Precious metals are one of the few pockets of this market offering tremendous value to hedge against extreme monetary policies, bursting asset bubbles, and record global leverage”

In this conversation, Tavi and Anthony Pompliano discuss Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, the current U.S. economic markets, China, precious metals, how central bankers handle recessions, and what Tavi thinks is most likely to occur in the macro world over the next few months.

Kevin Smith of hedge fund firm Crescat Capital in Denver joins the podcast to discuss his views on China and other asset bubbles, which he considers ripe for implosion.

Tavi Costa joins us on SBTV and shocked us with a plethora of warning signs he has found from his research that the bubble economy has peaked and the next economic meltdown is nearing.

Something happened in the bond market last week that has occurred before five of the past six major market meltdowns.

Read This Letter in PDF Form Dear Investors: The US stock market is retesting its all-time highs at record valuations yet again. We strongly believe it is poised to fail. The problem for bullish late-cycle momentum investors trying to play a breakout to new highs here is the oncoming freight train of deteriorating macro-economic conditions. US corporate profit growth, year-over-year, …

Read This Letter in PDF Form At Crescat, we remain steadfast in our net short US and global equities position in our hedge funds. We are driven by our macro fundamental modeling and themes. Three historically extreme macro imbalances in global financial markets today pose significant risks to investors at large today, including: Record US equity valuations; Historic global debt-to-GDP; …

Kevin Smith and Tavi Costa speak with Demetri Kofinas on the Hidden Forces podcast and discuss their case for why this market rally is different and how Crescat is positioned for the bear market.

Kevin Smith, joins Real Vision for his first Trade Ideas interview to discuss his bearish bet on the stock market. He reviews a variety of valuation metrics, highlights the flashing red signals from his macro indicators, and discusses how to make the trade, in this interview with Jake Merl.

Tavi Costa, makes his Real Vision debut in style — with a bullish trade idea on precious metals. He highlights why it’s finally time for gold to start outperforming, supports his thesis by examining a variety of macro indicators, and discusses how to play the current setup, in this interview with Jake Merl.

Kevin Smith and Tavi Costa discuss Crescat’s macro views on The Meb Faber Show.

Please see our latest macro presentation.