Category Archive

Read This Letter in PDF Form Dear Investors: Recessions become self-fulfilling prophesies late in an economic expansion at a point when people finally start believing and acting like one is imminent. It is particularly true when asset bubbles are present. A huge spike in concerns about the economy as measured by Google Trends analysis of the search word “recession” was …

Several macro hedge funds are on track for a banner month in August as fears of slowing global growth and protracted trade tensions sparked a long-awaited resurgence of volatility in currency and credit markets.

The stock market has gotten off to a brutal start this month, with the S&P 500 index down about 5% since it started unraveling last Thursday.

Read This Letter in PDF Form Dear Investors: Crescat’s “macro trade of the century” has just heated up significantly in August. In just the first two and a half trading days of the month, the Crescat Global Macro fund is up an estimated net 15.6% net MTD while the S&P 500 is down approximately 4.9%. All three legs of our …

An economic downturn is on its way and the best hedge against a major stock market sell-off is gold, silver, and mining stocks, which are all “widely under-owned” at the moment, said hedge fund Crescat Capital.

“Precious metals are one of the few pockets of this market offering tremendous value to hedge against extreme monetary policies, bursting asset bubbles, and record global leverage”

In this conversation, Tavi and Anthony Pompliano discuss Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, the current U.S. economic markets, China, precious metals, how central bankers handle recessions, and what Tavi thinks is most likely to occur in the macro world over the next few months.

Kevin Smith of hedge fund firm Crescat Capital in Denver joins the podcast to discuss his views on China and other asset bubbles, which he considers ripe for implosion.

Tavi Costa joins us on SBTV and shocked us with a plethora of warning signs he has found from his research that the bubble economy has peaked and the next economic meltdown is nearing.

Something happened in the bond market last week that has occurred before five of the past six major market meltdowns.

Read This Letter in PDF Form Dear Investors: The US stock market is retesting its all-time highs at record valuations yet again. We strongly believe it is poised to fail. The problem for bullish late-cycle momentum investors trying to play a breakout to new highs here is the oncoming freight train of deteriorating macro-economic conditions. US corporate profit growth, year-over-year, …

Read This Letter in PDF Form At Crescat, we remain steadfast in our net short US and global equities position in our hedge funds. We are driven by our macro fundamental modeling and themes. Three historically extreme macro imbalances in global financial markets today pose significant risks to investors at large today, including: Record US equity valuations; Historic global debt-to-GDP; …

Kevin Smith and Tavi Costa speak with Demetri Kofinas on the Hidden Forces podcast and discuss their case for why this market rally is different and how Crescat is positioned for the bear market.

Kevin Smith, joins Real Vision for his first Trade Ideas interview to discuss his bearish bet on the stock market. He reviews a variety of valuation metrics, highlights the flashing red signals from his macro indicators, and discusses how to make the trade, in this interview with Jake Merl.

Tavi Costa, makes his Real Vision debut in style — with a bullish trade idea on precious metals. He highlights why it’s finally time for gold to start outperforming, supports his thesis by examining a variety of macro indicators, and discusses how to play the current setup, in this interview with Jake Merl.

Kevin Smith and Tavi Costa discuss Crescat’s macro views on The Meb Faber Show.

Please see our latest macro presentation.

Bloomberg News editor Vildana Harjric reached out to Kevin Smith Sunday for his views on how attorney general William Barr’s latest letter on the Mueller report would likely affect S&P 500 futures that evening.

March 23, 2019   Dear Investors:   Thursday had the feel of a blow-off top for the bear market rally. We are near historic valuations for US stocks across at least eight fundamental measures and at a record late stage in the business cycle. Equity markets appear more stretched relative to underlying deteriorating fundamentals than ever. Micron this week was …

Dear Investors: At Crescat we remain positioned to capitalize on a downturn in the economic cycle. Global equity markets peaked in January 2018 while US markets peaked in September 2018. Crescat’s hedge funds were two of the world’s top performing funds in 2018 as a result of our bearish macro views and positioning last year. We are confident that was …

Crescat’s Global Macro Analyst Tavi Costa discusses macro trade of the year on Bloomberg.

Dear Investors: There is indeed a business cycle and timing it ahead of key inflection points is key to successful long-term investing. Based on our analysis, we are heading into a bear market in 2019 that will coincide with the start of a global recession that will not be officially acknowledged until well after it began. For the following reasons, …

The Crescat Global Macro Fund was ranked #1 performer in Macro category for December and full-year 2018 by BarclayHedge

How can Canada have such a tight labor market at the same time that companies are not making any money?