Below you'll find a list of all posts that have been categorized as “Crescat News and Updates”
March 23, 2020 Dear Investors: Many of you understandably have been asking for more frequent performance and positioning updates now that we are in a bona fide financial crisis. We are happy to oblige. The good news is that since the market top on February 19 and through last Friday, Crescat Global Macro Fund LP is up approximately 40.5% net …
March 17, 2020 Dear Investors: Are you looking for securities to buy to take advantage of the carnage in the financial markets from the coronavirus? Baron Rothschild, the 18th-century British banker advised that “The time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets, even if it is your own.” He made a fortune buying government bonds in the panic …
Dear Investors: The most overvalued stock market in US history finally climaxed in February. The popular delusion of this mania was that low interest rates and Fed liquidity would keep driving stock prices higher indefinitely. The market top was preordained based on an onslaught of deteriorating macro and fundamental indicators. These signals had been warning of a looming bear market …
Tavi built Crescat’s macro model that identifies the current stage of the US economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors. His research has been featured multiple times in financial publications.
Tavi Costa says opportunity may be knocking for one sector that’s been down in the dumps for a while. Oil-service stocks “have never looked so cheap,” Costa said in a tweet.
Download PDF Version The highly probable and downright inevitable unwind of today’s trifecta of financial asset bubbles: stocks, corporate credit, and Treasury bonds may soon morph into brutal bear market. The end game is unstoppable in our view and approaching fast. The Fed is between a rock and a hard place. It has been printing money like it’s the depth …
Read PDF Version An important ratio of commodity versus equity valuations just reached a fresh 50-year low resembling two prior significant cyclical US stock market peaks in 1972 and 2000. Macro Imbalances There is a laundry list of dangerous assets bubbles in the global financial markets today that have built up over a record long US economic expansion: Highest ever …
Kevin Smith joined SBTV for an update on the inversion of the yield curve, the looming threat from collateralized loan obligations and why silver will be gold on steroids in this bull market.
Is the 36-year-old currency peg between Hong Kong and the U.S. on the verge of collapse? Kevin Smith explains his short thesis on the Chinese Yuan and Hong Kong Dollar in his most recent Real Vision interview.
Tavi sees the current business cycle as being almost over and is awaiting an overall downturn in equities. Yield curves are inverting in most countries, and in Canada, 90 percent are now inverted.
Read This Letter in PDF Form Dear Investors: Recessions become self-fulfilling prophesies late in an economic expansion at a point when people finally start believing and acting like one is imminent. It is particularly true when asset bubbles are present. A huge spike in concerns about the economy as measured by Google Trends analysis of the search word “recession” was …
Several macro hedge funds are on track for a banner month in August as fears of slowing global growth and protracted trade tensions sparked a long-awaited resurgence of volatility in currency and credit markets.
The stock market has gotten off to a brutal start this month, with the S&P 500 index down about 5% since it started unraveling last Thursday.
Read This Letter in PDF Form Dear Investors: Crescat’s “macro trade of the century” has just heated up significantly in August. In just the first two and a half trading days of the month, the Crescat Global Macro fund is up an estimated net 15.6% net MTD while the S&P 500 is down approximately 4.9%. All three legs of our …
An economic downturn is on its way and the best hedge against a major stock market sell-off is gold, silver, and mining stocks, which are all “widely under-owned” at the moment, said hedge fund Crescat Capital.
“Precious metals are one of the few pockets of this market offering tremendous value to hedge against extreme monetary policies, bursting asset bubbles, and record global leverage”
In this conversation, Tavi and Anthony Pompliano discuss Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, the current U.S. economic markets, China, precious metals, how central bankers handle recessions, and what Tavi thinks is most likely to occur in the macro world over the next few months.