On The Precipice

Kevin Ludolph Crescat News and Updates

Read This Letter in PDF Form Dear Investors: The US stock market is retesting its all-time highs at record valuations yet again. We strongly believe it is poised to fail. The problem for bullish late-cycle momentum investors trying to play a breakout to new highs here is the oncoming freight train of deteriorating macro-economic conditions. US corporate profit growth, year-over-year, …

An Abundance of Macro Timing Signals

Kevin Ludolph Crescat News and Updates

Read This Letter in PDF Form At Crescat, we remain steadfast in our net short US and global equities position in our hedge funds. We are driven by our macro fundamental modeling and themes. Three historically extreme macro imbalances in global financial markets today pose significant risks to investors at large today, including: Record US equity valuations; Historic global debt-to-GDP; …

Kevin Smith Interviewed on Real Vision

Kevin Ludolph Crescat News and Updates

Kevin Smith, joins Real Vision for his first Trade Ideas interview to discuss his bearish bet on the stock market. He reviews a variety of valuation metrics, highlights the flashing red signals from his macro indicators, and discusses how to make the trade, in this interview with Jake Merl.

Tavi Costa Interviewed on Real Vision

Kevin Ludolph Crescat News and Updates

Tavi Costa, makes his Real Vision debut in style — with a bullish trade idea on precious metals. He highlights why it’s finally time for gold to start outperforming, supports his thesis by examining a variety of macro indicators, and discusses how to play the current setup, in this interview with Jake Merl.

Blow Off Top For Bear Market Rally

Kevin Ludolph Crescat News and Updates

March 23, 2019   Dear Investors:   Thursday had the feel of a blow-off top for the bear market rally. We are near historic valuations for US stocks across at least eight fundamental measures and at a record late stage in the business cycle. Equity markets appear more stretched relative to underlying deteriorating fundamentals than ever. Micron this week was …

Macro Trade of The Century

Kevin Ludolph Crescat News and Updates

Dear Investors: At Crescat we remain positioned to capitalize on a downturn in the economic cycle. Global equity markets peaked in January 2018 while US markets peaked in September 2018. Crescat’s hedge funds were two of the world’s top performing funds in 2018 as a result of our bearish macro views and positioning last year. We are confident that was …

Bear Market Rally Sets Up Opportunity For Crescat Strategies

Kevin Ludolph Crescat News and Updates

Dear Investors: There is indeed a business cycle and timing it ahead of key inflection points is key to successful long-term investing. Based on our analysis, we are heading into a bear market in 2019 that will coincide with the start of a global recession that will not be officially acknowledged until well after it began. For the following reasons, …

Strong 2018 for Crescat – Macro Opportunities Abound

Kevin Ludolph Crescat News and Updates

Crescat Global Macro Fund and Crescat Long/Short fund delivered strong returns for both December and full year 2018 in a difficult market. Based on Bloomberg reporting, Crescat had the number 1 and 2 performing US hedge funds in December and the number 1 and 3 performing US hedge funds for 2018. We are pleased to announce the official performance for …

2 of World’s Top Funds in 2018 per Bloomberg

Kevin Ludolph Crescat News and Updates

“As the dust settles on a troubled year for hedge funds, some managers escaped the wreckage and even thrived”, according to Bloomberg who recognized Crescat for its leading performance among hedge funds globally in 2018:  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-04/hedge-funds-returning-20-show-all-is-not-lost-for-smart-money

Crescat November Performance Update

Kevin Ludolph Crescat News and Updates

December 12, 2018 Dear Fellow Investors, Performance and Profit Attribution In December through yesterday’s close, Crescat Global Macro Fund (CGMF) is up an estimated 5.9% month to date and 29.9% year to date and Crescat Long/Short Fund (CLSF) is up approximately 7.4% month to date and 20.6% net year to date. Through the same period, the S&P 500 is down ...

Crescat Tops the Chart in October

Kevin Ludolph Crescat News and Updates

Dear Fellow Investors, October was a frightening month for investors around the world. From Hong Kong to New York, stock markets were slammed by a wave of fears about slowing growth, trade wars, and higher interest rates. The Nasdaq took the brunt of the damage. Stocks like Amazon and Netflix both lost around one-fifth of their value as the Nasdaq …

Crescat Delivers Strong October Results

Kevin Ludolph Crescat News and Updates

For the third time this year, Crescat Global Macro and Crescat Long/Short hedge funds were featured among Bloomberg’s monthly top U.S. hedge fund performers. See October’s Bloomberg Hedge Fund Brief. Year-to-date and long-term performance remain strong as our macroeconomic themes and proprietary models continue to uncover successful investment opportunities.   © 2018 Crescat Capital LLC   Case studies are included …