Category Archive

March 23, 2019   Dear Investors:   Thursday had the feel of a blow-off top for the bear market rally. We are near historic valuations for US stocks across at least eight fundamental measures and at a record late stage in the business cycle. Equity markets appear more stretched relative to underlying deteriorating fundamentals than ever. Micron this week was …

Dear Investors: At Crescat we remain positioned to capitalize on a downturn in the economic cycle. Global equity markets peaked in January 2018 while US markets peaked in September 2018. Crescat’s hedge funds were two of the world’s top performing funds in 2018 as a result of our bearish macro views and positioning last year. We are confident that was …

Crescat’s Global Macro Analyst Tavi Costa discusses macro trade of the year on Bloomberg.

Dear Investors: There is indeed a business cycle and timing it ahead of key inflection points is key to successful long-term investing. Based on our analysis, we are heading into a bear market in 2019 that will coincide with the start of a global recession that will not be officially acknowledged until well after it began. For the following reasons, …

The Crescat Global Macro Fund was ranked #1 performer in Macro category for December and full-year 2018 by BarclayHedge

How can Canada have such a tight labor market at the same time that companies are not making any money?

Crescat Global Macro Fund and Crescat Long/Short fund delivered strong returns for both December and full year 2018 in a difficult market. Based on Bloomberg reporting, Crescat had the number 1 and 2 performing US hedge funds in December and the number 1 and 3 performing US hedge funds for 2018. We are pleased to announce the official performance for …

Tavi Costa shared his views about the Canadian economy.

“As the dust settles on a troubled year for hedge funds, some managers escaped the wreckage and even thrived”, according to Bloomberg who recognized Crescat for its leading performance among hedge funds globally in 2018:  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-04/hedge-funds-returning-20-show-all-is-not-lost-for-smart-money

The Crescat Global Macro Fund was ranked #2 in Macro category for October performance by BarclayHedge.

Chasing utilities is a classic development that happens at market tops.

Dear Fellow Investors, October was a frightening month for investors around the world. From Hong Kong to New York, stock markets were slammed by a wave of fears about slowing growth, trade wars, and higher interest rates. The Nasdaq took the brunt of the damage. Stocks like Amazon and Netflix both lost around one-fifth of their value as the Nasdaq …

For the third time this year, Crescat Global Macro and Crescat Long/Short hedge funds were featured among Bloomberg’s monthly top U.S. hedge fund performers. See October’s Bloomberg Hedge Fund Brief. Year-to-date and long-term performance remain strong as our macroeconomic themes and proprietary models continue to uncover successful investment opportunities.   © 2018 Crescat Capital LLC   Case studies are included …

As September ended, so did the third quarter with diverging global financial markets: US stock indices marched to new highs while global stocks ex-US headed sharply downward. Emerging market currencies also faltered.

Longest bull market ever. Two trillion-dollar companies. Now you can add strongest rally ever during a tightening cycle to the list of milestones for U.S. stocks.

The Crescat Global Macro Fund was ranked #3 in the Macro category for June 2018 performance

China equity and yuan shorts worked well for Crescat’s hedge funds in July although US equity shorts and the gold longs held back the performance. We expect US equity shorts and gold longs to be changing soon in our favor.

Both Crescat Hedge Funds were highlighted among the top performing Funds in the June Bloomberg Hedge Fund Brief.

In our last quarterly letter, we showed five macro imbalances that were setting the Chinese yuan up for a substantial and imminent devaluation. Since then, our yuan devaluation theme has indeed started to play out again, like what began in 2015.

We strongly believe that the global macro investment cycle is turning down right now and that it is a critical time to take investment action if you are not already prepared.

Crescat’s hedge funds and long-only strategy performed well in May as cracks began to show in global financial markets.

Crescat Global Macro Fund was ranked #1 in the Macro category for February 2018 performance.

Crescat Global Macro and Long/Short hedge funds were featured among top hedge fund performers for February in the Bloomberg Hedge Fund Brief.

All Crescat strategies have outperformed the market significantly during the recent decline.

Kevin Smith expressed Crescat’s outlook on China in a recent Bloomberg Markets Magazine.