This Is It

Crescat Capital Crescat News and Updates

March 23, 2020 Dear Investors: Many of you understandably have been asking for more frequent performance and positioning updates now that we are in a bona fide financial crisis. We are happy to oblige. The good news is that since the market top on February 19 and through last Friday, Crescat Global Macro Fund LP is up approximately 40.5% net …

Blood in the Streets

Crescat Capital Crescat News and Updates

March 17, 2020 Dear Investors: Are you looking for securities to buy to take advantage of the carnage in the financial markets from the coronavirus? Baron Rothschild, the 18th-century British banker advised that “The time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets, even if it is your own.” He made a fortune buying government bonds in the panic …

The Tide is Going Out

Crescat Capital Crescat News and Updates

Dear Investors: The most overvalued stock market in US history finally climaxed in February. The popular delusion of this mania was that low interest rates and Fed liquidity would keep driving stock prices higher indefinitely. The market top was preordained based on an onslaught of deteriorating macro and fundamental indicators. These signals had been warning of a looming bear market …

Running Hot

Crescat Capital Crescat News and Updates

Download PDF Version The highly probable and downright inevitable unwind of today’s trifecta of financial asset bubbles: stocks, corporate credit, and Treasury bonds may soon morph into brutal bear market. The end game is unstoppable in our view and approaching fast. The Fed is between a rock and a hard place. It has been printing money like it’s the depth …

The Impending End of A Mania

Crescat Capital Crescat News and Updates

Read PDF Version An important ratio of commodity versus equity valuations just reached a fresh 50-year low resembling two prior significant cyclical US stock market peaks in 1972 and 2000. Macro Imbalances There is a laundry list of dangerous assets bubbles in the global financial markets today that have built up over a record long US economic expansion: Highest ever …

Necessary, Normal, and Inevitable

Crescat Capital Crescat News and Updates

Read This Letter in PDF Form Dear Investors: Recessions become self-fulfilling prophesies late in an economic expansion at a point when people finally start believing and acting like one is imminent. It is particularly true when asset bubbles are present. A huge spike in concerns about the economy as measured by Google Trends analysis of the search word “recession” was …

Crescat’s Macro Trade Heating Up

Crescat Capital Crescat News and Updates

Read This Letter in PDF Form Dear Investors: Crescat’s “macro trade of the century” has just heated up significantly in August. In just the first two and a half trading days of the month, the Crescat Global Macro fund is up an estimated net 15.6% net MTD while the S&P 500 is down approximately 4.9%. All three legs of our …