Crescat News & Updates

On The Precipice

June 20, 2019 - Read This Letter in PDF Form Dear Investors: The US stock market is retesting its all-time highs at record valuations yet again. We strongly believe it is poised to fail. The problem for bullish late-cycle momentum investors trying to play a breakout to new highs here is the oncoming freight… Learn More »

An Abundance of Macro Timing Signals

May 14, 2019 - Read This Letter in PDF Form At Crescat, we remain steadfast in our net short US and global equities position in our hedge funds. We are driven by our macro fundamental modeling and themes. Three historically extreme macro imbalances in global financial markets today pose significant risks to investors at… Learn More »

Kevin Smith and Tavi Costa on Hidden Forces Podcast

April 29, 2019 - Kevin Smith and Tavi Costa speak with Demetri Kofinas on the Hidden Forces podcast and discuss their case for why this market rally is different and how Crescat is positioned for the bear market. Learn More »

Kevin Smith Interviewed on Real Vision

April 26, 2019 - Kevin Smith, joins Real Vision for his first Trade Ideas interview to discuss his bearish bet on the stock market. He reviews a variety of valuation metrics, highlights the flashing red signals from his macro indicators, and discusses how to make the trade, in this interview with Jake Merl. Learn More »

Tavi Costa Interviewed on Real Vision

April 25, 2019 - Tavi Costa, makes his Real Vision debut in style — with a bullish trade idea on precious metals. He highlights why it’s finally time for gold to start outperforming, supports his thesis by examining a variety of macro indicators, and discusses how to play the current setup, in this… Learn More »

Kevin Smith and Tavi Costa on The Meb Faber Podcast

April 25, 2019 - Kevin Smith and Tavi Costa discuss Crescat’s macro views on The Meb Faber Show. Learn More »

April 2019 Macro Deck

April 15, 2019 - Please see our latest macro presentation. Learn More »

Kevin Smith Featured In Bloomberg Article Discussing William Barr Letter and Outlook on S&P 500

March 26, 2019 - Bloomberg News editor Vildana Harjric reached out to Kevin Smith Sunday for his views on how attorney general William Barr’s latest letter on the Mueller report would likely affect S&P 500 futures that evening. Learn More »

Blow Off Top For Bear Market Rally

March 22, 2019 - Thursday had the feel of a blow-off top for the bear market rally. We are near historic valuations for US stocks across at least eight fundamental measures and at a record late stage in the business cycle. Equity markets appear more stretched relative to underlying deteriorating fundamentals than ever. Learn More »

MarketWatch Came Out With Another Great Piece on Crescat Today

March 22, 2019 - MarketWatch shared our views that the second leg of the bear market likely kicked off today. Learn More »

Bloomberg News wrote a nice article on Crescat this week

March 22, 2019 - The global stock market (likely bull-trap) rally YTD has resulted in a pullback for Crescat’s hedge funds given our steadfast net short positioning. We believe Crescat’s hedge funds are poised for another run like we had at the end of 2018 when we finished among the top performing funds in the world. Learn More »

Macro Trade of The Century

Dear Investors: At Crescat we remain positioned to capitalize on a downturn in the economic cycle. Global equity markets peaked in January 2018 while US markets peaked in September 2018. Crescat’s hedge funds were two of the world’s top performing funds in 2018 as a result of our bearish macro… Learn More »

Global Macro Analyst Tavi Costa Interviewed on Bloomberg TV

March 1, 2019 - Crescat’s Global Macro Analyst Tavi Costa discusses macro trade of the year on Bloomberg. Learn More »

Crescat Global Macro Analyst Tavi Costa Interviewed By MarketWatch

February 27, 2019 - Investors are waking up to a rumble on the geopolitical front, as tensions heat up between two big nuclear powers, India and Pakistan. Learn More »

Bear Market Rally Sets Up Opportunity For Crescat Strategies

February 22, 2019 - Dear Investors: There is indeed a business cycle and timing it ahead of key inflection points is key to successful long-term investing. Based on our analysis, we are heading into a bear market in 2019 that will coincide with the start of a global recession that will not be officially… Learn More »

Global Macro Fund ranked #1 performer in Macro category for December and full-year 2018 by BarclayHedge

February 13, 2019 - The Crescat Global Macro Fund was ranked #1 performer in Macro category for December and full-year 2018 by BarclayHedge Learn More »


How can Canada have such a tight labor market at the same time that companies are not making any money? Learn More »

CIO Kevin Smith Interviewed on Bloomberg TV

January 18, 2019 - Crescat’s Chief Investment Officer Kevin Smith discusses global economy and Canadian housing bubble. Learn More »

Strong 2018 for Crescat – Macro Opportunities Abound

January 18, 2019 - Crescat Global Macro Fund and Crescat Long/Short fund delivered strong returns for both December and full year 2018 in a difficult market. Based on Bloomberg reporting, Crescat had the number 1 and 2 performing US hedge funds in December and the number 1 and 3 performing US hedge… Learn More »

Crescat Global Macro Analyst Tavi Costa Quoted In Bloomberg Article

January 18, 2019 - Tavi Costa shared his views about the Canadian economy. Learn More »

2 of World’s Top Funds in 2018 per Bloomberg

"As the dust settles on a troubled year for hedge funds, some managers escaped the wreckage and even thrived.” Learn More »

Global Macro Fund Ranked #2 in Macro Category For October by BarclayHedge

December 19, 2018 - The Crescat Global Macro Fund was ranked #2 in Macro category for October performance by BarclayHedge. Learn More »

Crescat Global Macro Analyst, Tavi Costa Featured on Bloomberg

December 18, 2018 - Chasing utilities is a classic development that happens at market tops. Learn More »

Crescat November Performance Update

December 12, 2018 Dear Fellow Investors, Performance and Profit Attribution In December through yesterday’s close, Crescat Global Macro Fund (CGMF) is up an estimated 5.9% month to date and 29.9% year to date and Crescat Long/Short Fund (CLSF) is up approximately… Learn More »

Crescat Tops the Chart in October

Dear Fellow Investors, October was a frightening month for investors around the world. From Hong Kong to New York, stock markets were slammed by a wave of fears about slowing growth, trade wars, and higher interest rates. The Nasdaq took the brunt of the damage. Stocks like Amazon and Netflix… Learn More »

Crescat Delivers Strong October Results

November 8, 2018 - For the third time this year, Crescat Global Macro and Crescat Long/Short hedge funds were featured among Bloomberg’s monthly top U.S. hedge fund performers. See October’s Bloomberg Hedge Fund Brief.Year-to-date and long-term performance remain strong as our… Learn More »

Crescat Hedge Funds Off to a Roaring Start in October

October 11, 2018 - As September ended, so did the third quarter with diverging global financial markets: US stock indices marched to new highs while global stocks ex-US headed sharply downward. Emerging market currencies also faltered. Learn More »

Crescat Global Macro Analyst, Tavi Costa Highlighted in Bloomberg Markets Article

September 12, 2018 - Longest bull market ever. Two trillion-dollar companies. Now you can add strongest rally ever during a tightening cycle to the list of milestones for U.S. stocks. Learn More »

Global Macro Fund Ranked #3 in Macro Category for June by Barclayhedge

August 7, 2018 - The Crescat Global Macro Fund was ranked #3 in the Macro category for June 2018 performance Learn More »

Crescat July Estimates

August 3, 2018 - China equity and yuan shorts worked well for Crescat’s hedge funds in July although US equity shorts and the gold longs held back the performance. We expect US equity shorts and gold longs to be changing soon in our favor. Learn More »