Crescat News & Updates

CIO Kevin Smith Quoted in Reuters

February 21, 2020 - “It’s not really possible for us to be any more bearish on China.” Learn More »

Crescat’s Macro Trade of The Century – YouTube Live Stream

February 21, 2020 - Portfolio managers, Kevin Smith and Tavi Costa, show the macro set up of a lifetime. Learn More »

Crescat Macro Chart Presentation

February 21, 2020 - Chart presentation from our latest YouTube live stream. Learn More »

Kevin Smith and Tavi Costa Featured in MarketWatch

January 30, 2020 - Kevin Smith, chief investment officer at Crescat Capital, says the bear case for U.S. stocks has never been stronger” and it’s time for investors to be aware of the “gravity” of the current situation. Learn More »

Tavi Costa: Gold and Silver Miners are Set Up to Push a Lot Higher

January 21, 2020 - Tavi outlines where we are at in the business cycle and the risks he sees in the financial system. Gold is the real safe-haven asset and is looking increasingly useful, and silver appears set to outperform. Learn More »

Kevin Speaks with Oliver Renick on TD Ameritrade Network

January 15, 2020 - Kevin Smith talks with Oliver Renick on TD Ameritrade Network about monitoring market melt-up conditions. Learn More »

Tavi Costa Talks with Jelly Donut Podcast

January 6, 2020 - Tavi built Crescat’s macro model that identifies the current stage of the US economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors. His research has been featured multiple times in financial publications. Learn More »

Tavi Costa Featured in Barrons

January 6, 2020 - Tavi Costa says opportunity may be knocking for one sector that’s been down in the dumps for a while. Oil-service stocks “have never looked so cheap,” Costa said in a tweet. Learn More »

Running Hot

December 21, 2019 - The highly probable and downright inevitable unwind of today’s trifecta of financial asset bubbles: stocks, corporate credit, and Treasury bonds may soon morph into a brutal bear market. The end game is unstoppable in our view and approaching fast. The Fed is between a rock and a hard place. Learn More »

The Impending End of A Mania

November 24, 2019 - An important ratio of commodity versus equity valuations just reached a fresh 50-year low resembling two prior significant cyclical US stock market peaks in 1972 and 2000. Learn More »

Kevin Smith Speaks With Silver Bullion TV

November 14, 2019 - Kevin Smith joined  SBTV for an update on the inversion of the yield curve, the looming threat from collateralized loan obligations and why silver will be gold on steroids in this bull market. Learn More »

Kevin Smith Discusses China Slowdown With Oliver Renick

November 12, 2019 - Kevin Smith breaks down why economic indicators suggest there's no catalyst for a 2015-like rebound. Learn More »

Kevin Smith on Real Vision | Trade Ideas

October 7, 2019 - Is the 36-year-old currency peg between Hong Kong and the U.S. on the verge of collapse? Kevin Smith explains his short thesis on the Chinese Yuan and Hong Kong Dollar in his most recent Real Vision interview. Learn More »

Tavi Costa Interviewed on Palisade Radio

September 18, 2019 - Tavi sees the current business cycle as being almost over and is awaiting an overall downturn in equities. Yield curves are inverting in most countries, and in Canada, 90 percent are now inverted. Learn More »

Necessary, Normal, and Inevitable

September 10, 2019 - Recessions become self-fulfilling prophesies late in an economic expansion at a point when people finally start believing and acting like one is imminent. It is particularly true when asset bubbles are present. A huge spike in concerns about the economy as measured by Google Trends analysis of the search word “recession” was not a contrary indicator at all at the very beginning of 2008. Learn More »

Crescat Among Hedge Funds Calling For Hong Kong Dollar Break

August 30, 2019 - Hong Kong has kept its currency in a tight trading band versus the U.S. dollar since 1983. For most of that time, speculators have had little reason to question the peg’s viability. Learn More »

Bloomberg Cites Crescat Among Top Performing Macro Fund in August

August 26, 2019 - Several macro hedge funds are on track for a banner month in August as fears of slowing global growth and protracted trade tensions sparked a long-awaited resurgence of volatility in currency and credit markets. Learn More »

Kevin Smith Discusses the Fed with Oliver Renick

August 16, 2019 - The Fed is behind the curve. Kevin Smith discusses Crescat’s macro views with Oliver Renick on TD Network. Learn More »

MarketWatch Highlights Crescat’s Success With Yuan Short

August 12, 2019 - The stock market has gotten off to a brutal start this month, with the S&P 500 index down about 5% since it started unraveling last Thursday. Learn More »

Crescat’s Macro Trade Heating Up

August 5, 2019 - Crescat’s “macro trade of the century” has just heated up significantly in August. In just the first two and a half trading days of the month, the Crescat Global Macro fund is up an estimated net 15.6% net MTD while the S&P 500 is down approximately 4.9%. All three legs of our macro trade have been working remarkably well: Learn More »

Crescat’s Gold Strategy Discussed in Kitco Article

July 31, 2019 - An economic downturn is on its way and the best hedge against a major stock market sell-off is gold, silver, and mining stocks, which are all “widely under-owned” at the moment, said hedge fund Crescat Capital. Learn More »

Crescat Launches New Gold Strategy

July 31, 2019 - “Precious metals are one of the few pockets of this market offering tremendous value to hedge against extreme monetary policies, bursting asset bubbles, and record global leverage” Learn More »

Tavi Costa Appears on the “Off The Chain” Podcast

July 17, 2019 - In this conversation, Tavi and Anthony Pompliano discuss Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, the current U.S. economic markets, China, precious metals, how central bankers handle recessions, and what Tavi thinks is most likely to occur in the macro world over the next few months. Learn More »

Kevin Smith Appeared On The Contratian Investor Podcast

July 16, 2019 - Kevin Smith of hedge fund firm Crescat Capital in Denver joins the podcast to discuss his views on China and other asset bubbles, which he considers ripe for implosion. Learn More »

Tavi Costa Speaks With Silver Bullion TV

July 10, 2019 - Tavi Costa joins us on SBTV and shocked us with a plethora of warning signs he has found from his research that the bubble economy has peaked and the next economic meltdown is nearing. Learn More »

Tavi Costa Shares His Views With CNN

July 8, 2019 - Something happened in the bond market last week that has occurred before five of the past six major market meltdowns. Learn More »

On The Precipice

June 20, 2019 - Read This Letter in PDF Form Dear Investors: The US stock market is retesting its all-time highs at record valuations yet again. We strongly believe it is poised to fail. The problem for bullish late-cycle momentum investors trying to play a breakout to new highs here is the oncoming freight… Learn More »

An Abundance of Macro Timing Signals

May 14, 2019 - Read This Letter in PDF Form At Crescat, we remain steadfast in our net short US and global equities position in our hedge funds. We are driven by our macro fundamental modeling and themes. Three historically extreme macro imbalances in global financial markets today pose significant risks to investors at… Learn More »

Kevin Smith and Tavi Costa on Hidden Forces Podcast

April 29, 2019 - Kevin Smith and Tavi Costa speak with Demetri Kofinas on the Hidden Forces podcast and discuss their case for why this market rally is different and how Crescat is positioned for the bear market. Learn More »

Kevin Smith Interviewed on Real Vision

April 26, 2019 - Kevin Smith, joins Real Vision for his first Trade Ideas interview to discuss his bearish bet on the stock market. He reviews a variety of valuation metrics, highlights the flashing red signals from his macro indicators, and discusses how to make the trade, in this interview with Jake Merl. Learn More »