Crescat News & Updates


KEVIN SMITH AND TAVI COSTA PRESENT MACRO OUTLOOK TO THE ECONOMIC CLUB OF COLORADO

Kevin and Tavi explain the Macro Trade of the Century and engage in Q&A with state business leaders. See the video replay here: Learn More »


TAVI COSTA’S CENTRAL BANK ANALYSIS SHOWN IN CCN ARTICLE

May 15, 2020 - "The Fed just bought a record amount of mortgage backed securities this last week. It accounted for 84% of its most recent stimulus." Learn More »


KEVIN SMITH’S GRIM MARKET OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTED IN CCN ARTICLE

May 3, 2020 - "Smith believes that the stock market picture looks eerily similar to the 1930 "relief rally" that followed the initial wave of the "Black Monday" crash." Learn More »


CRESCAT HAS TOP PERFORMING FUNDS DURING MARKET MELTDOWN

April 22, 2020 - Crescat was featured as one of the top 7 performing hedge funds since the market top in February. Learn More »


CRESCAT WARNS THAT RELIEF RALLY IS ABOUT TO CRASH

April 15, 2020 - "We strongly believe that investors should be wary of getting sucked into the relief rally." Learn More »


CRESCAT’S SPECTACULAR MARCH PROFILED IN MARKETS INSIDER

April 3, 2020 - "Smith remains net short on stocks as he expects 'much more downside' for equities and corporate credit markets." Learn More »


KEVIN SMITH AND TAVI COSTA FEATURED IN OZY

March 30, 2020 - "He predicted the coronavirus crash … and now has a "macro trade of the century" up his sleeve." Learn More »


Macro Trade of the Century with Kevin Smith & Tavi Costa on ValueWalk Podcast

March 26, 2020 - Kevin and Tavi elaborate on Crescat's the Macro Trade of the Century. Learn More »


Tavi Costa Interview With Rethinking the Dollar

March 23, 2020 - Live Q&A with Tavi Costa and Daniel Lacalle to discuss the current macro environment. Learn More »


Tavi Costa – Silver Is A Coiled Spring Wound Even Tighter Now

March 23, 2020 - SBTV speaks with Tavi Costa about why the virus outbreak is looking to be the last nail in the coffin for overvalued stocks and the economy. Learn More »


This Is It

March 23, 2020 - Many of you understandably have been asking for more frequent performance and positioning updates now that we are in a bona fide financial crisis. We are happy to oblige. Learn More »


Blood in the Streets

March 17, 2020 - Baron Rothschild, the 18th-century British banker advised that "the time to buy is when there's blood in the streets, even if it is your own." But it’s not sovereign debt of the world’s superpowers that is on sale today; it’s not the S&P 500 or Dow either. Learn More »


CIO Kevin Smith Explains the “Macro Trade of the Century” on TD Ameritrade Network

March 13, 2020 - The total fiasco in the $JNUG ETF today is much more likely to mark a major bottom for precious metals mining stocks than the top for gold. Buy the stocks yourself, not these garbage ETFs. They are not likely to stay down here long. Insane value. Huge FCF yields! Learn More »


The Tide is Going Out

March 8, 2020 - The most overvalued stock market in US history finally climaxed in February. The popular delusion of this mania was that low interest rates and Fed liquidity would keep driving stock prices higher indefinitely. Learn More »


CIO Kevin Smith Quoted in Reuters

February 21, 2020 - “It’s not really possible for us to be any more bearish on China.” Learn More »


Crescat’s Macro Trade of The Century – YouTube Live Stream

February 21, 2020 - Portfolio managers, Kevin Smith and Tavi Costa, show the macro set up of a lifetime. Learn More »


Crescat Macro Chart Presentation

February 21, 2020 - Chart presentation from our latest YouTube live stream. Learn More »


Kevin Smith and Tavi Costa Featured in MarketWatch

January 30, 2020 - Kevin Smith, chief investment officer at Crescat Capital, says the bear case for U.S. stocks has never been stronger” and it’s time for investors to be aware of the “gravity” of the current situation. Learn More »


Tavi Costa: Gold and Silver Miners are Set Up to Push a Lot Higher

January 21, 2020 - Tavi outlines where we are at in the business cycle and the risks he sees in the financial system. Gold is the real safe-haven asset and is looking increasingly useful, and silver appears set to outperform. Learn More »


Kevin Speaks with Oliver Renick on TD Ameritrade Network

January 15, 2020 - Kevin Smith talks with Oliver Renick on TD Ameritrade Network about monitoring market melt-up conditions. Learn More »


Tavi Costa Talks with Jelly Donut Podcast

January 6, 2020 - Tavi built Crescat’s macro model that identifies the current stage of the US economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors. His research has been featured multiple times in financial publications. Learn More »


Tavi Costa Featured in Barrons

January 6, 2020 - Tavi Costa says opportunity may be knocking for one sector that’s been down in the dumps for a while. Oil-service stocks “have never looked so cheap,” Costa said in a tweet. Learn More »


Running Hot

December 21, 2019 - The highly probable and downright inevitable unwind of today’s trifecta of financial asset bubbles: stocks, corporate credit, and Treasury bonds may soon morph into a brutal bear market. The end game is unstoppable in our view and approaching fast. The Fed is between a rock and a hard place. Learn More »


The Impending End of A Mania

November 24, 2019 - An important ratio of commodity versus equity valuations just reached a fresh 50-year low resembling two prior significant cyclical US stock market peaks in 1972 and 2000. Learn More »


Kevin Smith Speaks With Silver Bullion TV

November 14, 2019 - Kevin Smith joined  SBTV for an update on the inversion of the yield curve, the looming threat from collateralized loan obligations and why silver will be gold on steroids in this bull market. Learn More »


Kevin Smith Discusses China Slowdown With Oliver Renick

November 12, 2019 - Kevin Smith breaks down why economic indicators suggest there's no catalyst for a 2015-like rebound. Learn More »


Kevin Smith on Real Vision | Trade Ideas

October 7, 2019 - Is the 36-year-old currency peg between Hong Kong and the U.S. on the verge of collapse? Kevin Smith explains his short thesis on the Chinese Yuan and Hong Kong Dollar in his most recent Real Vision interview. Learn More »


Tavi Costa Interviewed on Palisade Radio

September 18, 2019 - Tavi sees the current business cycle as being almost over and is awaiting an overall downturn in equities. Yield curves are inverting in most countries, and in Canada, 90 percent are now inverted. Learn More »


Necessary, Normal, and Inevitable

September 10, 2019 - Recessions become self-fulfilling prophesies late in an economic expansion at a point when people finally start believing and acting like one is imminent. It is particularly true when asset bubbles are present. A huge spike in concerns about the economy as measured by Google Trends analysis of the search word “recession” was not a contrary indicator at all at the very beginning of 2008. Learn More »


Crescat Among Hedge Funds Calling For Hong Kong Dollar Break

August 30, 2019 - Hong Kong has kept its currency in a tight trading band versus the U.S. dollar since 1983. For most of that time, speculators have had little reason to question the peg’s viability. Learn More »