Current Views

November 16, 2018 - Flashing signal of recession ahead: Today’s global yield curve inversion looks just as concerning as the ones that preceded the last two market crashes! We now have 11 economies with 30-year yields lower than the fed funds rate. South Korea just joined the pack last month. Learn More »

November 14, 2018 - The 3-Month Libor vs. Euribor spread is at its highest level since 1999! Is the ECB about to start tightening or the Fed about to stop? Either way, unless “this time is different”, such policy changes from similar extremes is what preceded the last two recessions. Learn More »

November 12, 2018 - Today’s move in oil is a real sign of weakness. It’s like Oct. 2008 when markets completely ignored OPEC’s 1.5mbd supply cut and prices continued to collapse. Remember: in 2016, the 1.2mbd production cut sent oil prices up over 15% for the next 2 days. Not this time. Learn More »

November 2, 2018 - Massive divergence due to elections just caused the spread between Brazilian stocks and emerging markets index to reach its highest level in history! Wonder which one is going the wrong direction… Learn More »

October 30, 2018 - Another one of those eerie resemblances to previous market tops. Global stocks to US Treasuries ratio has now broken down after reaching just 51bps of its record level at tech bubble peak. Learn More »

October 25, 2018 - I am amazed German 10-year Bunds yield 122 bps lower than Fed fund rates at a time when the ECB bond buying spree is set to end shortly. That’s the largest negative spread since 1989! Coincidentally, the same yield disparity preceded the last 3 recessions!!! Learn More »

October 24, 2018 - This is the level of insanity credit markets have reached: Would you ever buy a 30-year bond that yields less than the LIBOR overnight rate? 10 countries offer this great deal. What we have is a massive yield curve inversion globally. Learn More »

October 23, 2018 - Interesting breakdown in oil today. If it’s going to follow EM currencies as it has historically, there is a lot more downside. Learn More »