March 26, 2024
Since the early 1980s, the global economy has rejoiced in a long period of significant cooperation among nations in supporting each other’s government financing needs. However, given…
Read More »»Since the early 1980s, the global economy has rejoiced in a long period of significant cooperation among nations in supporting each other’s government financing needs. However, given…
Read More »»Valuation extremes combined with macro inflection signals provide generational opportunities to position opposite the crowd for potentially large gains. At Crescat, we live for such times. We…
Read More »»The current macro environment across global equity markets presents a sharply divided investment setup for 2024 and the remainder of the decade. While our concerns are fueled…
Read More »»A Profusion of Recession Indicators Despite the growing popularity of the soft-landing narrative, the current scenario presents a multitude of macro factors forewarning a major recession. The dangerous…
Read More »»Investors in US Treasury bonds have experienced extraordinary losses in the post-Covid stimulus era as evidenced by the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (Ticker: TLT) which…
Read More »»We believe conventional investment strategies are poised to undergo a significant restructuring, placing a prominent emphasis on investments in hard assets. As illustrated in the accompanying chart,…
Read More »»There is a high probability of a recession in the next twelve months according to the NY Fed’s statistically significant yield-curve inversion model. One wouldn’t know it…
Read More »»Monetary and fiscal authorities are currently running what we believe are unsustainably divergent policies. The simultaneous rise in the cost of debt by central banks and their…
Read More »»Dear Investors: At Crescat, we have three overriding, high-conviction macro themes supported by our independent research and proprietary models that we believe are poised to unfold in rapid…
Read More »»US policymakers continue to act as if they have the stability of the financial system, the economy, and consumer prices under control. Instead, their ongoing deficit spending…
Read More »»The last 12 months have marked one of the steepest Fed rate-hiking cycles in history. Meanwhile, financial conditions remain too loose for secular inflationary forces but too…
Read More »»In our view, inflation is the most mispriced macro variable in markets today. CPI growth is 5.1% higher over the last two years, but five-year forward inflation…
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