Investor Letters

Strong November and YTD Returns As 2025 draws to a close, Crescat Capital is celebrating a standout year of performance. All five Crescat hedge funds have delivered strong…

Has Nvidia, along with the rest of the “Magnificent 7,” the Nasdaq 100, and the S&P 500, already peaked for the current business cycle? It’s a bold…

Crescat’s year-to-date performance through September across all our funds reflects the strength of our investment themes and the conviction behind them.

Evidence continues to mount that the US equity market is nearing a critical turning point — one that could evolve into something far more significant than a…

Crescat’s high returns year-to-date do not necessarily mean you are too late. It means our largest theme across all of our funds is working. Our activist metals…

The US now faces a textbook twin deficit problem: a swollen fiscal shortfall on one side and a trade imbalance on the other. The fiscal deficit is…

Crescat is having an outstanding year. All 5 of our funds rank in the top 10 among 1,151 hedge funds in the Preqin database for 2025 year-to-date…

The United States faces a foundational challenge: the pursuit of leadership in artificial intelligence, industrial regeneration, and domestic manufacturing depends not only on digital infrastructure or intellectual…

We are thrilled to report that Crescat’s funds are off to a great start in 2025. Three of Crescat’s funds rank in the top 10 of the…

The recent surge in gold prices reflects what we believe are the inevitable consequences of decades of ultra-loose monetary policies, excessive debt accumulation, and fiscal mismanagement. Those…

Excessive valuations and investor overcrowding in US megacap tech stocks in our view represent the biggest risk to the overall US stock market and economy today. Competition…

The History of US Dollar Cycles Macro regime shifts often stem from systemic imbalances, where excessive concentration of capital in certain sectors, asset classes, or currencies reaches saturation…

The purpose of this research letter is to illustrate the historic countercyclicality of gold mining stocks versus the broad US stock market over a variety of economic…

What if the rate of inflation is in the process of bottoming out and the Federal Reserve has limited capacity to intervene to contain it? Monetary policy is…

The Federal Reserve has signaled lower short-term rates ahead, but two important macro questions have yet to be answered: Do the asset bubbles of the post Global…

In our view, we stand on the cusp of a major transformation in the foreign exchange (FX) markets: a likely significant depreciation of the US dollar relative…

Cisco Systems was the most valuable company in the world at the peak of the dot-com bubble in March 2000. Its stock price had reached a high of $80.06 per share giving the company an enterprise value (EV) of $548 billion or 5.5% of US GDP and 37 times sales. Investor exuberance over tech stocks was high. The future economic promise of the Internet for the world economy was strong, but the forward earnings growth rates implicit in tech stock valuations were not achievable...

In essence, our investment approach focuses on identifying significant macro trends and strategically positioning ourselves to capitalize on them, primarily by targeting highly inefficient market segments that have historically been mispriced relative to the potential economic shifts we anticipate. Given the current context of one of the most undisciplined monetary and fiscal environments in history, we firmly believe that the best decade-ahead looking strategy today includes preparation for a likely profound capital migration towards hard assets by investing now in the fundamentally undervalued businesses that find and produce them....

There are three supporting themes driving our conviction that the timing for investing in gold, silver, copper, and other metal exploration stocks has never been more compelling: …

Since the early 1980s, the global economy has rejoiced in a long period of significant cooperation among nations in supporting each other’s government financing needs. However, given…

Valuation extremes combined with macro inflection signals provide generational opportunities to position opposite the crowd for potentially large gains. At Crescat, we live for such times. We…

The current macro environment across global equity markets presents a sharply divided investment setup for 2024 and the remainder of the decade. While our concerns are fueled…

A Profusion of Recession Indicators Despite the growing popularity of the soft-landing narrative, the current scenario presents a multitude of macro factors forewarning a major recession. The dangerous…

Investors in US Treasury bonds have experienced extraordinary losses in the post-Covid stimulus era as evidenced by the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (Ticker: TLT) which…

We believe conventional investment strategies are poised to undergo a significant restructuring, placing a prominent emphasis on investments in hard assets. As illustrated in the accompanying chart,…

There is a high probability of a recession in the next twelve months according to the NY Fed’s statistically significant yield-curve inversion model. One wouldn’t know it…

Monetary and fiscal authorities are currently running what we believe are unsustainably divergent policies. The simultaneous rise in the cost of debt by central banks and their…

Dear Investors: At Crescat, we have three overriding, high-conviction macro themes supported by our independent research and proprietary models that we believe are poised to unfold in rapid…

US policymakers continue to act as if they have the stability of the financial system, the economy, and consumer prices under control. Instead, their ongoing deficit spending…

The last 12 months have marked one of the steepest Fed rate-hiking cycles in history. Meanwhile, financial conditions remain too loose for secular inflationary forces but too…

In our view, inflation is the most mispriced macro variable in markets today. CPI growth is 5.1% higher over the last two years, but five-year forward inflation…