June 17, 2020 Dear Investors: The US stock market should not be trading anywhere close to the multiples it is today given the enormity of the macro events that have already unfolded this year: US and Iran being on the brink of war in January with still unresolved problems. The virus pandemic that now has an incredibly …
April 14, 2020
Dear Investors:
Equity bulls are coming into Q1 earnings reporting season amped up on Fed liquidity after a record $2.3 trillion of monetary stimulus announced last week. The problem is that the US economy just entered a massive asset bubble bursting recession. The fundamental downturn was in motion even before coronavirus blanketed the country. Earnings for the broad Russell 3000 stock index …
March 23, 2020 Dear Investors: Many of you understandably have been asking for more frequent performance and positioning updates now that we are in a bona fide financial crisis. We are happy to oblige. The good news is that since the market top on February 19 and through last Friday, Crescat Global Macro Fund LP is up approximately 40.5% net …
March 17, 2020 Dear Investors: Are you looking for securities to buy to take advantage of the carnage in the financial markets from the coronavirus? Baron Rothschild, the 18th-century British banker advised that “The time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets, even if it is your own.” He made a fortune buying government bonds in the panic …
Dear Investors: The most overvalued stock market in US history finally climaxed in February. The popular delusion of this mania was that low interest rates and Fed liquidity would keep driving stock prices higher indefinitely. The market top was preordained based on an onslaught of deteriorating macro and fundamental indicators. These signals had been warning of a looming bear market …