The Crescat Global Macro Fund delivered a great month in April, up 10.2%, during a broad selloff in the US equity market with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices down 8.7% and 13.3% respectively. Our US dollar versus Chinese yuan long call options, equity short themes, and high yield bond put options delivered the bulk of the profits as we show in our attribution chart further below.
Amazon, down 14% Friday after a major earnings miss, was our largest single short position going into the day in both the Global Macro and Long/Short funds. For the month, Crescat Precious Metals Fund was down an estimated 7.3% net while its benchmark Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index was down 9.9%. On a positive note for our precious metals longs across the firm, CPMF was up 2.1% on the last day of the month with the Nasdaq 100 down 4.5%.
Here are the April net estimates across all Crescat strategies:
HRFX estimates do not yet include the last day of April which was a material down day in the broad equity markets.
We believe the consolidation in the mining stocks is overdone at this point. The CPMF performance on Friday is evidence that gold and silver mining stocks are ripe for a turn back up. The Precious Metals Fund is setting up for some incredible performance ahead, in our view, especially for our portfolio of first tier explorers. CPMF not only outperformed its benchmark Philly Index in the washout last month but also the GDX and GDXJ ETFs. We have continued to add to our best names in that fund and have been funding many new ones as lead investor in various PIPEs and pre-IPO deals as well. We are doing this all at incredibly deep valuations relative to the probable metal in the ground based on our Lassonde curve model.
It is still very early in a new commodities cycle due to structural supply constraints based on years of underinvestment that cannot be reversed any time soon. Meanwhile, there is still plenty of downside ahead for large cap growth equities. It is like early 1973 and late 2000 in our analysis. The chart below just serves as a reminder of how early in the macro rotation cycle that it is:
Here is a link to our latest weekly YouTube presentation with various updates from Tavi, Kevin, and Quinton.
Crescat Global Macro Fund Exposure by Theme
Profit Attribution by Theme YTD through April 2022
Profit Attribution by Theme April 2022
We would like to introduce Crescat’s latest hire, Nathaniel Gilbert, a recent economics graduate from the University of Colorado, Boulder, who is Kevin’s new executive assistant. We would also like to highlight Max Fischer’s promotion to analyst on the investment team.
Kevin C. Smith, CFA
Member & Chief Investment Officer
Member & Portfolio Manager
For more information including how to invest, please contact:
Client Service Associate
Client Service Associate
Linda Carleu Smith, CPA
Member & COO
© 2022 Crescat Capital LLC
Performance data represents past performance, and past performance does not guarantee future results. An individual investor’s results may vary due to the timing of capital transactions. Performance for all strategies is expressed in U.S. dollars. Cash returns are included in the total account and are not detailed separately. Investment results shown are for taxable and tax-exempt clients and include the reinvestment of dividends, interest, capital gains, and other earnings. Any possible tax liabilities incurred by the taxable accounts have not been reflected in the net performance. Performance is compared to an index, however, the volatility of an index varies greatly and investments cannot be made directly in an index. Market conditions vary from year to year and can result in a decline in market value due to material market or economic conditions. There should be no expectation that any strategy will be profitable or provide a specified return. Case studies are included for informational purposes only and are provided as a general overview of our general investment process, and not as indicative of any investment experience. There is no guarantee that the case studies discussed here are completely representative of our strategies or of the entirety of our investments, and we reserve the right to use or modify some or all of the methodologies mentioned herein.
Separately Managed Account (SMA) disclosures: The Crescat Large Cap Composite and Crescat Precious Metals Composite include all accounts that are managed according to those respective strategies over which the manager has full discretion. SMA composite performance results are time weighted net of all investment management fees and trading costs including commissions and non-recoverable withholding taxes. Investment management fees are described in Crescat’s Form ADV 2A. The manager for the Crescat Large Cap strategy invests predominatly in equities of the top 1,000 U.S. listed stocks weighted by market capitalization. The manager for the Crescat Precious Metals strategy invests predominantly in a global all-cap universe of precious metals mining stocks.
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Investors may obtain the most current performance data, private offering memoranda for a Crescat’s hedge funds, and information on Crescat’s SMA strategies, including Form ADV Part II, by contacting Linda Smith at (303) 271-9997 or by sending a request via email to firstname.lastname@example.org. See the private offering memorandum for each Crescat hedge fund for complete information and risk factors.