Strong November and YTD Returns
As 2025 draws to a close, Crescat Capital is celebrating a standout year of performance. All five Crescat hedge funds have delivered strong results in November and year-to-date.
Crescat’s strategies continue to receive global recognition for their strong performance. Through October 31, five of Crescat’s funds ranked among the top 15 hedge funds year-to-date according to Preqin, a leading independent provider of alternative asset data and analytics.
Past performance does not guarantee future results, investing involves risk including risk of loss. Data shown is generated by Preqin, a leading provider of data and intelligence for the alternative assets industry. Fund managers, including Crescat, report their performance information to Preqin. Crescat pays an annual fee to Preqin to have access to the database, which gives us the ability to generate this report. The rankings are versus all 1,397 hedge funds in the Preqin database and YTD performance updated through October 2025 as of 11/21/2025. No award or ranking should be construed as a guarantee that you will experience a certain level of results, nor should it be construed as a current or past endorsement of Crescat. See below for additional important disclosures.
Macro Themes are Working
This performance confirms that our macro themes are not only intact but gaining momentum. Below is an excerpt from our most recent investor research letter from CIO Kevin Smith, offering perspective on the catalysts behind our returns and the opportunity we believe still lies ahead.
Has Nvidia, along with the rest of the “Magnificent 7,” the Nasdaq 100, and the S&P 500, already peaked for the current business cycle? It’s a bold proposition, but certainly possible in our view. October 29 of this year may well mark that turning point. Nvidia’s cash flow disappointment relative to analyst expectations in its earnings release on November 19 may have sealed the deal.
Stock market bulls, don’t despair. We think there are plenty of value and growth stocks to buy for the shifting macro climate. More on that further below.
In recent weeks, Michael Burry and Jim Chanos have been sounding alarms about aggressive accounting changes with respect to useful lives of Nvidia GPUs, likely having the effect of understating depreciation expense at its megacap tech customers. Meanwhile, several major financial outlets, including The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, and the Financial Times, have highlighted circular deals among AI “hyperscalers” and their #1 supplier, Nvidia, reminiscent of vendor financing excesses of the 2000 internet and telecom bubble.
We trust our investors and readers will recall where they first encountered the boom-and-bust theory of the capital expenditure cycle as it applies to today’s megacap tech stocks. We began discussing it, well ahead of the curve, with supporting fundamental charts and historical analogs in August of last year: Asset Bubbles and Inflation. Warnings of late-cycle excesses are now coming to light in the financial analyst community and media, and we think it is important to be on alert for potential downside risk in megacap tech and large cap index funds.
Comparisons with the tech mania that peaked on March 27, 2000 when Cisco Systems held the world’s largest market capitalization are warranted. Nvidia’s recent enterprise value reached almost three times Cisco’s at that time when normalized for U.S. GDP.
Indeed, as of October 29, Nvidia’s enterprise value relative to GDP was 36% higher than the EV to GDP of the three biggest internet hardware leaders of 2000 combined: Cisco, Intel, and Sun Microsystems.
Crescat Live Market Calls
For those interested in our most up-to-date views on the markets, macro environment, and our highest-conviction mining positions, we encourage you to watch our recent Crescat Live Market Call videos. In these discussions, our investment team provides real-time insights into portfolio positioning, industry developments, and the activist strategy that continues to drive performance across the firm.
- 11/21/25 – covering Nvidia volatility, record-low investor cash, VIX–credit spread signals, and central-bank liquidity trends impacting equities and precious metals.
- 11/7/25 – consumer sentiment lows, gold-miner opportunities, silver’s “critical metal” designation, commodities vs. Fed Funds, and UK Treasury flows.
- 10/24/25 – overcrowded U.S. equity positioning, the compressed gold-to-S&P 500 ratio amid rising debt concerns, and why macro imbalances favor precious metals.
What’s in Store for 2026?
As we look toward 2026, we believe the macro setup is increasingly pointing to a reallocation of capital away from overpriced megacap tech and toward the sectors long ignored but now critical to the next economic cycle: energy, and mining, especially precious and critical metals. We believe it is still very early in the growth and value cycle for precious and critical metals mining investments.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including risk of loss. See below for additional important disclosures.
With global liquidity surging even as central banks tighten and a secular commodity bull-market environment unfolding, hard assets and resource equities stand to benefit from structural supply/demand imbalances and rising real-asset demand. Meanwhile, the unsustainable valuations and crowding in tech, particularly in firms built around AI hype, suggest risk is rising for long-duration growth equities. For investors with a long-term horizon and a tolerance for volatility, we believe 2026 may offer one of the most asymmetric risk/reward environments in years, a chance to be positioned early for the next resource-led growth surge.
Global Macro Fund Celebrates 20 Years
January 1, 2026, will mark 20 years of our flagship Crescat Global Macro Fund. Our two macro funds (Crescat Global Macro and Crescat Institutional Macro), along with the Long/Short Fund, are a way for investors to potentially capitalize on downturns in mega-cap tech as well as hedge against valuation risks in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100. The chart below, pulled from eVestment, highlights not only the Fund’s exceptional returns but also the strength of Crescat’s investment approach across market cycles.
Fund universe includes all discretionary global macro funds with a track record that goes back to at least January 1, 2006, in the eVestment database. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including risk of loss. See below for additional important disclosures.
How Can I Get Involved?
If you are interested in investing in any of our strategies, we encourage you to reach out to Crescat’s Head of Investor Relations, Marek Iwahashi, at miwahashi@crescat.net. For more information, you are welcome to review the funds fact sheets and performance reports, presentation decks, or schedule a call with our team to discuss how Crescat’s strategies may fit in your portfolio.
Crescat 2025 Hedge Fund Performance
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including risk of loss. See below for additional important disclosures.
Thank you for being a valued Crescat subscriber. We look forward to sharing many more years of growth and success across the firm.
Sincerely,
Crescat Capital LLC
Kevin C. Smith, CFA
Member & Chief Investment Officer
Tavi Costa
Member & Macro Strategist
For more information including how to invest, please contact:
Marek Iwahashi
Head of Investor Relations
miwahashi@crescat.net
303-271-9997
© 2025 Crescat Capital LLC
Important Disclosures
This letter is being provided for informational purposes only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objective, financial situation, suitability, or the particular need of any specific person who may receive this presentation and should not be taken as advice on the merits of any investment decision. The letters represent the opinions of CPM, as an exploration industry advocate, on the overall geologic progress of our activist strategy in creating new economic metal deposits in viable mining jurisdictions around the world. Issuers discussed have generally been selected solely for this purpose and has not been selected on the basis of performance or any performance-related criteria. Any securities discussed herein do not represent an entire portfolio and in the aggregate may only represent a small percentage of a strategy’s holdings. The Issuers discussed may or may not be held in such portfolios at any given time. The Issuers discussed do not represent all of the investments purchased or sold by Funds or Strategies managed by CPM. It should not be assumed that any or all of these investments were or will be profitable. Investments in Issuers discussed may not be appropriate for all investors. Actual holdings will vary for each client or fund and there is no guarantee that a particular account will hold any or all of the securities discussed.
Projected results and statements contained in this letter that are not historical facts are based on current expectations and involve risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results.
This letter may contain certain forward-looking statements, opinions and projections that are based on the assumptions and judgments of Crescat with respect to, among other things, future economic, competitive and market conditions and future business decisions, all of which are difficult or impossible to predict accurately and many of which are beyond the control of Crescat. Because of the significant uncertainties inherent in these assumptions and judgments, you should not place undue reliance on these forward looking statements, nor should you regard the inclusion of these statements as a representation by Crescat that these objectives will be achieved. These opinions are current as of the date stated and are subject to change without notice. The information contained in the letter is based on publicly available information with respect to the Issuers as of the date of such letter and will not be updated after such date.
Data shown is generated by Preqin, a leading provider of data and intelligence for the alternative assets industry. Fund managers, including Crescat, report their performance information to Preqin. Crescat pays an annual fee to Preqin to have access to the database, which gives us the ability to generate this report. The rankings are versus all 1,397 hedge funds in the Preqin database and YTD performance updated through October 2025 as of 11/21/2025. No award or ranking should be construed as a guarantee that you will experience a certain level of results, nor should it be construed as a current or past endorsement of Crescat. Additional performance information can be found on Crescat’s website here: https://www.crescat.net/performance/
Fund universe includes all discretionary global macro funds with track record that goes back to at least January 1, 2006, in the eVestment database. Performance figures presented represent the fund’s net returns, show the impact of fees and expenses and are calculated without the impact of the San Cristobal Mining, Inc. (SCM) Side Pocket that was designated on July 1st, 2024. Fund performance, including the SCM Side Pocket, can be found on the firm’s website here: https://www.crescat.net/performance/. Returns for the most recent month are based on internal estimates which have the potential to change once finalized. Additional disclosures regarding risks and performance presented are found here: https://www.crescat.net/due-diligence/disclosures/
Discussion and details provided is for informational purposes only. This letter is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, services of Crescat, or its Funds. The information provided in this letter is not intended as investment advice or recommendation to buy or sell any type of investment, or as an opinion on, or a suggestion of, the merits of any particular investment strategy.
CPM has not sought or obtained consent from any third party to use any statements or information indicated herein that have been obtained or derived from statements made or published by such third parties.
All content posted on CPM’s letters including graphics, logos, articles, and other materials, is the property of CPM or others and is protected by copyright and other laws. All trademarks and logos are the property of their respective owners, who may or may not be affiliated with CPM. Nothing contained on CPM’s website or social media networks should be construed as granting, by implication, estoppel, or otherwise, any license or right to use any content or trademark displayed on any site without the written permission of CPM or such other third party that may own the content or trademark displayed on any site.
References to indices, benchmarks or other measures of relative market performance over a specified period of time are provided for your information only. Reference to an index does not imply that the fund or separately managed account will achieve returns, volatility or other results similar to that index. The composition of an index may not reflect the manner in which a portfolio is constructed in relation to expected or achieved returns, portfolio guidelines, restrictions, sectors, correlations, concentrations, volatility or tracking. Indices include the reinvestment of income and do not include transaction fees, management fees or any other costs.
Additional important disclosures including risk disclosures can be found here: https://www.crescat.net/due-diligence/disclosures/